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steven0461 comments on A Thought on Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong
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Yes. Yvain's 1 in 50 million example, on the other hand, is fine, because the probability went down. In a more extreme example, it could have had a 50-50 chance of going down to 0 (dropping by a factor infinity) as long as there had been a 50-50 chance of it doubling. Conservation of expected evidence.