JoshuaZ comments on A sense of logic - Less Wrong

13 Post author: NancyLebovitz 10 December 2010 06:19PM

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Comment author: JoshuaZ 10 December 2010 09:20:07PM 1 point [-]

It does make sense as an argument that you should look into it not as an argument itself to switch.

Comment author: DSimon 12 December 2010 12:47:04AM 1 point [-]

Good point, but I disagree on a detail: just knowing that there's some threshold of savings that some people have achieved when switching to X Brand Insurance tells us that at least one person passed that threshold... but it doesn't tell us how likely we are to pass that threshold.

For that I think you'd need something like "10% of the people who got a quote from X Brand insurance later switched, saving on average Y dollars!" Except, no insurance company would run that ad, because 10% is an unimpressive "sounding" number even though in this context it would actually be really high.