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gwern comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong

129 Post author: Yvain 16 December 2010 03:06AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 12 February 2012 12:24:53AM 1 point [-]

The map being distinct from the territory, you must go outside your map to discount your probability calculations made in the map. But how to do this? You must resort to a stronger map. But then the calculations there are subject to the errors in designing that map.

You can run this logic down to the deepest level. How does a rational person adopt a Bayesian methodology? Is there not some probability that the choice of methodology is wrong? But how do you conceive of that probability, when Bayesian considerations are the only ones available to evaluate truth from given evidence?

Why don't these considerations prove that Bayesian epistemology isn't the true account of knowledge?

Comment author: gwern 16 June 2012 09:02:55PM 2 points [-]

Why don't these considerations prove that Bayesian epistemology isn't the true account of knowledge?

Looks to me like you've proved that no one can ever change their beliefs or methodology, so not only have you disproven Bayesian epistemology, you've managed to disprove everything else too!

Comment author: DragonGod 04 October 2017 09:07:59AM 0 points [-]

Counter example: I changed my epistemology from Aristotelian to Aristotle + Bayes + frequentism.