wedrifid comments on Best of Rationality Quotes 2009/2010 - Less Wrong

24 Post author: DanielVarga 18 December 2010 09:36PM

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Comment author: DanielVarga 22 December 2010 05:47:09AM *  2 points [-]

I think a good metric is this: Assuming we independently draw from the observed distribution of achieved karma scores, what is the probability that someone gets at least as much karma as Yvain when she posts as many quotes as Yvain? You can calculate this by iterated convolution. The assumption of total independence heavily favors Yvain, but I am fine with that.

I loaded the actual observed distribution, and calculated this score:

  • 0.00008 (12.48 in 54): Rain
  • 0.00066 (15.53 in 17): Yvain
  • 0.00128 (13.15 in 27): MichaelGR
  • 0.00174 (54.00 in 1): michaelkeenan
  • 0.00312 (13.29 in 21): RobinZ
  • 0.00766 (22.67 in 3): Tesseract
  • 0.00836 (18.80 in 5): Unnamed
  • 0.01499 (18.25 in 4): sketerpot
  • 0.02368 (10.15 in 47): Eliezer_Yudkowsky
  • 0.02473 (18.33 in 3): Kyre
  • 0.03460 (19.50 in 2): knb
  • 0.03831 (15.50 in 4): Lightwave
  • 0.04265 (23.00 in 1): Vlad
  • 0.04817 (16.00 in 3): Hariant
  • 0.05266 (12.86 in 7): Kutta
  • 0.05396 (22.00 in 1): DaveInNYC
  • 0.06051 (12.57 in 7): wuwei
  • 0.06789 (20.00 in 1): CSmith
  • 0.07663 (13.50 in 4): Apprentice
  • 0.07663 (13.50 in 4): komponisto
  • 0.08094 (19.00 in 1): Marcello
  • 0.08622 (14.00 in 3): jaimeastorga2000
  • 0.08622 (14.00 in 3): MichaelHoward
  • 0.09554 (11.38 in 8): billswift
  • 0.10009 (18.00 in 1): cata
  • 0.11401 (17.00 in 1): MarcTheEngineer
  • 0.12449 (8.77 in 81): RichardKennaway
  • 0.12763 (12.00 in 4): SilasBarta
  • 0.13055 (16.00 in 1): CaptainOblivious2
  • 0.13055 (16.00 in 1): Tyrrell_McAllister
  • 0.13092 (13.50 in 2): JamesAndrix
  • 0.13828 (12.33 in 3): Randaly
  • 0.14534 (15.00 in 1): Automaton
  • 0.14534 (15.00 in 1): loqi
  • 0.14534 (15.00 in 1): Nisan
  • 0.14534 (15.00 in 1): Patrick
  • 0.14534 (15.00 in 1): teageegeepea
  • 0.14695 (13.00 in 2): BenAlbahari
  • 0.15183 (10.83 in 6): DSimon
Comment author: wedrifid 22 December 2010 06:00:41AM 0 points [-]

That's brilliant. I like the theory and the ranking matches about what my intuitive manual ranking would have been too.