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Skatche comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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I was simply going by remembered frequencies: every year since I started paying attention I've heard, at least once, something of the form "This year/season/month/day was (one of) the hottest on record in Ontario/Canada/America/the world." I therefore take the probability that at least one of these things happening to be quite high, and so the probability of specifically the U.S. having specifically a "historically hot" summer, although small, is by no means negligible. 10% is a reasonable rough estimate.
Did you know in certain parts of Europe, this winter was the first winter since 1945 where it has snowed for more than (some number) days before (some date) ?
Media like records, so they will report quantities that attain a record value.
That's true, but irrelevant. The fact that they're being reported doesn't change the fact that record values are, indeed, being attained.
It depends on how natural the records in question are. If there are 100 different records to be broken, you expect every year to break one and you should never be surprised when someone reports on it.
If you are choosing random properties and finding them to be extremal with reasonable probability, then you are getting a totally different sort of data.
This is also true but irrelevant. Skatche wasn't making predictions about whether he would be surprised by reports of records being broken. Just a specific prediction about weather.