As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!
I was thinking along the lines of Skatche's reasoning above. 10% is my break-even point; if you were willing to go against me at 19:1, I'd take it.
I didn't make myself clear - it's the other side of the bet I want!
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!