As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!
I didn't make myself clear - it's the other side of the bet I want!
Oh, in that case I'd take the "no" side at 5:1 odds or lower. (I'm metauncertain enough that I wouldn't dare make bets in either direction close enough to my break-even point.)
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!