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Perplexed comments on Rationality Quotes: February 2011 - Less Wrong
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Well now I want to test this. Do we have anyone here who thinks they know a thing or two about the stock market? If so would they be amenable to an experiment?
I'm thinking that they would agree not to look at any stock price information for a day (viewing all the other news they want). At the end of the day they are presented with some possible sets of market closes, all but one of which of which are fake, and we see if they can reliably find the right one.
Finding the most probable market outcome given a few possibilities and a day's news is easier than noticing by yourself that the news and the market don't fit.
I will participate if you'd like to try, there are some problems with the experiment though
I'm still interested, what changes would you suggest?
Sorry for the slow reply, want to do this over email? im gbasin at gmail
I'm benelliott3 at gmail. To be honest I'm not very familiar with the stock-market so if you could suggest a procedure for the experiment, including such things as where to get the information that would be appreciated.
Care to precommit to a discussion post about the experiment regardless of the result?