Rationality Quotes: February 2011

gwern

Take off every 'quote'! You know what you doing. For great insight. Move 'quote'.

And if you don't:

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself.
Do not quote comments/posts from LW. (If you want to exclude OB too create your own quotes thread! OB is entertaining and insightful and all but it is no rationality blog!)
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

Take off every 'quote'! You know what you doing. For great insight. Move 'quote'.

And if you don't:

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself.
Do not quote comments/posts from LW. (If you want to exclude OB too create your own quotes thread! OB is entertaining and insightful and all but it is no rationality blog!)
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

Well now I want to test this. Do we have anyone here who thinks they know a thing or two about the stock market? If so would they be amenable to an experiment?

I'm thinking that they would agree not to look at any stock price information for a day (viewing all the other news they want). At the end of the day they are presented with some possible sets of market closes, all but one of which of which are fake, and we see if they can reliably find the right one.

Finding the most probable market outcome given a few possibilities and a day's news is easier than noticing by yourself that the news and the market don't fit.

2ig0r15y

I will participate if you'd like to try, there are some problems with the experiment though

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Rationality Quotes: February 2011

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Rationality Quotes: February 2011

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