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Gurkenglas
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I operate by Crocker's rules.

I try to not make people regret telling me things. So in particular:
- I expect to be safe to ask if your post would give AI labs dangerous ideas.
- If you worry I'll produce such posts, I'll try to keep your worry from making them more likely even if I disagree. Not thinking there will be easier if you don't spell it out in the initial contact.

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tailcalled's Shortform
Gurkenglas3d20

wait, that's me! boo on you for booing me!

Reply1
tailcalled's Shortform
Gurkenglas3d30

How do you know who's doing it?

Reply
A computational no-coincidence principle
Gurkenglas6d20

In constructive mathematics, not (not A) doesn't imply A: Given some (A -> EmptySet) -> EmptySet, you'd be hard-pressed to extract an A using the usual methods.

You could try to go: "The (A -> EmptySet) -> EmptySet must surely use its input, where else would it get an element of EmptySet? So I will attach a debugger to it and watch for when it tries to call its input with some A; then abort the proceedings and return the A it came up with." But theoretically, you'd need an extra axiom to allow such a trick.

I suspect that the principle is true, but needs more axioms to prove than one would like.

Reply
No, Futarchy Doesn’t Have an EDT Flaw
Gurkenglas11d2-2

You can anti-correlate it by running 1000 markets on different questions you're interested in, and announcing that all but a randomly chosen one will N/A, so as to not need to feed an insurer. This also means traders on any of your markets can get a free loan to trade on the others.

Reply11
No, Futarchy Doesn’t Have an EDT Flaw
Gurkenglas11d20

Can you do three markets with 0%, 33% and 66% to N/A, to extrapolate what 99% N/A would do?

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Discontinuous Linear Functions?!
Gurkenglas16d120

a small change in the input can't correspond to an arbitrarily large change in the output

The sign function doesn't have an arbitrarily large change in the output. Do you maybe mean that an infinitesimal change in the input can only produce an infinitesimal change in the output? I don't see how that fails, but maybe just because I don't have a definition for it at hand.

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Discontinuous Linear Functions?!
Gurkenglas16d20

you haven't deleted it.

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I made a card game to reduce cognitive biases and logical fallacies but I'm not sure what DV to test in a study on its effectiveness.
Gurkenglas20d00

you're getting fleeced, go to a print shop and print some cards on thick paper and cut them with their cutting tools. if you print 9 decks side-by-side on a stack of A4 paper you might not even need to measure.

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Prover-Estimator Debate: A New Scalable Oversight Protocol
Gurkenglas21d*Ω350

Sure, and I expect there are reasons for assuming that A can't hide a flaw from B, e.g. maybe one can prove that honest and dishonest can't be distinguished if it can, but I don't see this mentioned anywhere.

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5Gurkenglas's Shortform
6y
30
83I'm offering free math consultations!
6mo
7
24A Brief Theology of D&D
3y
2
65Would you like me to debug your math?
4y
16
22Domain Theory and the Prisoner's Dilemma: FairBot
4y
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7Changing the AI race payoff matrix
5y
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68Using GPT-N to Solve Interpretability of Neural Networks: A Research Agenda
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43Mapping Out Alignment
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18What are some good public contribution opportunities? (100$ bounty)
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5Gurkenglas's Shortform
6y
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40Implications of GPT-2
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Reflective category theory
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