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Jonathan_Graehl comments on Procedural Knowledge Gaps - Less Wrong
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Are you sure you considered the selection effect (those likely to join a team have what unusual properties?) as well as further selection after joining from dropouts?
However, I can't argue against your 6:30 recreational median. I trained for a half marathon for a few months and indeed got stuck at around a 6:10 mile (at 185lb).
No, I'm not sure how strong the selection effects are. In fact it's seems certain that some selection effects exist, and I don't know how to estimate them. But the signal is so strong that I didn't think selection effects could explain all of it. It might be an interesting question to investigate. Presumably there are studies done on making out-of-shape people exercise. Military recruiting and training could also provide a lot of data.