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eli_sennesh comments on Procedural Knowledge Gaps - Less Wrong
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Disagree. The point is not to pick out undervalued stocks, but to ride the cycles.
If you want to ride the cycles, shouldn't you just market-time the broad index of your choice? Picking "undervalued" companies to ride the cycles implies that you have two skills (which, I think, are mostly orthogonal) -- the stock-picking skill and the market-timing skill.
Fair enough, although I would generally say to pick the stock via fundamentals and industry-specific knowledge.