wedrifid comments on Bayesians vs. Barbarians - Less Wrong
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It is possible to predict the output of a system without emulating the system. We can use the idea 'of emulating their behavior' if it helps as an intuition pump but to assume that it is required is a mistake.
Why on earth would I cooperate with you? You just told me you were going to defect!
(But I do respect your grappling with the problem. It is NOT trivial. Well, I should say it is trivial but it is hard to get your head around it, particularly with our existing intuitions.)