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fool comments on A summary of Savage's foundations for probability and utility. - Less Wrong
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Very well done! I concede. Now that I see it, this is actually quite general.
My point wasn't just that I had a decision procedure, but an explanation for it. And it seems that, no matter what, I would have to explain
A) Why ((Green and Heads) or (Blue and Tails)) is not a known bet, equiprobable with Red, or
B) Why I change my mind about the urn after a coin flip.
Earlier, some others suggested non-causal/magical explanations. These are still intact. If the coin is subject to the Force, then (A), and if not, then (B). I rejected that sort of thing. I thought I had an intuitive non-magical explanation. But, it doesn't explain (B). So, FAIL.