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Caspian comments on A summary of Savage's foundations for probability and utility. - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Sniffnoy 22 May 2011 07:56PM

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Comment author: Caspian 15 January 2012 02:53:47AM *  2 points [-]

Betting generally includes an adversary who wants you to lose money so they win it. Possibly in psychology experiments, betting against the experimenter, you are more likely to have a betting partner who is happy to lose money on bets. And there was a case of a bet happening on Less Wrong recently where the person offering the bet had another motivation, demonstrating confidence in their suspicion. But generally, ignoring the possibility of someone wanting to win money off you when they offer you a bet is a bad idea.

Now betting is supposed to be a metaphor for options with possibly unknown results. In which case sometimes you still need to account for the possibility that the options were made available by an adversary who wants you to choose badly, but less often. And you also should account for the possibility that they were from other people who wanted you to choose well, or that the options were not determined by any intelligent being or process trying to predict your choices, so you don't need to account for an anticorrelation between your choice and the best choice. Except for your own biases.