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MattFisher comments on Selecting Rationalist Groups - Less Wrong

35 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 02 April 2009 04:21PM

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Comment author: MattFisher 03 April 2009 05:26:17AM *  0 points [-]

A simple variant with interesting results would be to deal everyone one card from a full deck. Anyone who is dealt a diamond is a deceiver. The dealer can be the spokesman, so it will rotate each turn. This way there is a 1/4 chance that any given person is a deceiver, and a small (1/(4^n))-ish chance that all n players (including the dealer) are trying to deceive each other.

Trying to reach the best outcome for everyone with an unknown number of deceivers in the mix? Sounds like life.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 April 2009 05:44:37AM 3 points [-]

But the spokesperson is the only one known to be trustworthy who has to put together the final estimate - if they're a deceiver, they can just say "One googol!" or whatever.