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ciphergoth comments on Help Fund Lukeprog at SIAI - Less Wrong
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Given the large amount of effort it took to get to the miny camps, all four of these could be easily explained by cognitive dissonance.
What evidence would you expect them to have if the "minicamp" was a genuine success? (Edited - thanks for the correction, wedrified!)
Bootcamp? I found the wording Eliezer used fascinating:
Have they actually claimed anywhere here that the bootcamp was successful?
Oops, fixed - thanks!
Honestly, I'm not sure. Having a randomized control group and then looking at actual success would be nice. Even without a good control, one obvious thing to do would have been to do before and after tests of similar questions that test for rational behavior (e.g. whether they can recognize they are engaging in the sunk cost fallacy and things like that). It may be that given the circumstances the best evidence we have is self-reporting like this. If so, it is evidence for the success of the minicamps. But, it is not very strong evidence precisely because it is consistent with a variety of other not implausible hypotheses. This thread has made me more inclined to believe that the minicamps were successful, but had not strongly increased my confidence.