What seems far more effective is getting people to the point where they can say "I have no need of that hypothesis."

I agree with that, but I would note that this is a highly intellectual route which won't work on people whose reasons are non-intellectual. I was a theist once: less so because of any intellectual issues, but because of the emotional comfort and feeling of safety that it provided. I've also talked to religious people who acknowledge that on an intellectual level, there's no reason to believe, but on an emotional level there is.

I often get the feeling that LW focuses exceedingly on the intellectual reasons, while not always realizing that the emotional reasons can by themselves be enough for someone to believe. (On the other hand, purely emotional belief tends to be compartmentalized and harmless, so focusing solely on the intellectual belief is probably a good thing. But it does risk creating an incorrect model of the psychology of the believers.)