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Normal_Anomaly comments on Criticisms of intelligence explosion - Less Wrong
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But it's weak evidence of their absence, because them posting would be strong evidence of their presence.
(nods) Certainly. But weak enough to be negligible compared to most people's likely priors.
I sometimes feel like we should simply have a macro that expands to this comment, its parent, and its grandparent.
I'm not sure what you mean here. Is it something like,
?
The closest thing we currently have is linking to the Absence of Evidence post.
Something like, but more "the evidence is consistent with X and ~X, but favors X very weakly (because absence of evidence is evidence of absence), but sufficiently weakly that the posterior probability of X is roughly equal to the prior probability of X."
But I was mostly joking.