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Douglas_Knight comments on Criticisms of intelligence explosion - Less Wrong
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Something that expands at a fixed 1 m/s in all three of on a planet, in a solar system, and between stars qualifies as an artificial stupidity.
Something that expands at 0.1 c can be observed, but has heavy anthropic penalty: we should not be surprised not to see it.
We don't have a good idea how quickly something can expand between stars. The gaps between stars are big and launching things fast is tough. The fastest we've ever launched something is Helios) which at maximum velocity was a little over 0.0002c. I agree that 1 m/s would probably be artificial stupid. There's clearly a sweet range here. If for example, your AI expanded at .01c then it won't ever reach us in time if it started in another galaxy. Even your example of .1c (which is extremely fast rate of expansion) means that one has to believe that most of the Filtration is not occurring due to AI.
If AI is the general filter and it is expanding at .1c then we need to live in an extremely rare lightcone for not seeing any sign of it. This argument is of course weak (and nearly useless) if one thinks that the vast majority of filtration is behind us. But either way, it strongly suggests that most of the Filter is not fast-expanding AI.
Yes, if things expanding at 0.1c are common, then we should see galaxies containing them, but would we notice them? Would the galaxy look unnatural from this distance?
Not directly relevant, but I'm not sure how you're using filtration. I use it in a Fermi paradox sense: a filter is something that explains the failure to expand. An expanding filter is thus nonsense. I suppose you could use it in a doomsday argument sense - "Where does my reference class end?" - but I don't think that is usual.
This would depend on what exactly they are doing to those galaxies. If they are doing stellar engineering (e.g. making Dyson spheres, Matrioshka brains, stellar lifting) then we'd probably notice if it were any nearby galaxy. But conceivably something might try to deliberately hide its activity.
Yes, I think I'm using it in some form closer to the second. In the context of the first one, in regards solely to the Fermi problem then AGI is simply not a filter at all which if anything makes the original point stronger.