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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Newcomb's Problem standard positions - Less Wrong
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Well, it had better not be predictable that you're going to try that. I mean, at the point where Omega realizes, "Hey, this guy is going to try an elaborate clever strategy to get me to fill box B and then two-box" It's pretty much got you pegged.
That's not so - the "elaborate clever strategy" does include a chance that you'll one-box. What does the payoff matrix look like from Omega's side?
I never said it was easy thing to do. I just meant that situation is the maximum if it is reachable. Which depends upon the implementation of Omega in the real world.