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New Year's Prediction Thread (2012)

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

Going through expiring predictions reminded me. Just as we did for 2010 and 2011, it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give hostages to fortune in making predictions for events in 2012 and beyond.

Suggested topics include: Methods of Rationality updates (eg. "will there be any?"), economic benchmarks (price of gold has been an educational one for me this past year), medical advances (but be careful not to be too optimistic!), personal precommitments (signing up for cryonics?), being curmudgeonly about self-improvement, making daring predictions about the future of AGI, and so on.

As before, please be fairly specific. I intend to put most predictions on PredictionBook.com and it'd be nice if they weren't too hard to judge in the future.

(If you want advice on making good predictions, I've tried to write up a few useful heuristics I've learned. So far in the judging process, I've done pretty well this year, although I'm a little annoyed I got a Yemen prediction right but for the wrong reasons.)

Comments (339)

Comment author: CronoDAS 01 January 2012 10:30:13AM *  20 points [-]

So... how did I do for my 2011 predictions?

The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%

Apparently correct.

"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%

Apparently incorrect. It wasn't much higher, but it was still higher.

The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%

Wrong. To my surprise, the book did indeed come out.

A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million

As expected, no AGI.

The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million

As expected, the world is still here.

My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%

Wrong again here; she died in January.

The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000

As expected, no proof.

I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%

As expected, no qualification.

I get a "real job": 1%

As expected, no job.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 02 January 2012 03:44:34PM *  10 points [-]

Before I give my predictions for this year, a record of how I did on last year's predictions.

General AI will not be made in 2011. Confidence: 90%

Was correct.

The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest. (Note that this may be hard to measure.) Confidence: 95%.

I haven't been able to judge this. It looks hard to tell but seems to be correct. However, to a large extent this being correct extended from something I didn't anticipate- it took much longer to actually implement the repeal than I expected, so the repeal took effect fairly late in the year.

The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven.

I initially gave this 75% but further discussion suggested I was underconfident and so I bounced this up to 95% and was correct.

Ryan Williams recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP (See here for a discussion of Williams work) will be tightened in at least one of three ways: The result will be shown to apply for some smaller set of problems than NEXP, the result will be improved for some broader type of circuit than ACC, or the bound on the circuit size ruled out will be improved. Confidence: 60%

Was incorrect.

At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction "megachurch" means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services. Confidence: 70%.

A few such scandals occurred but none of them were in churches nearly large enough. So this was incorrect.

Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities: Confidence 80%.

Was incorrect.

So with this out of the way new predictions. I'm not including here any predictions that have an end date of 2013 which I've already put in PredictionBook.

The first four predictions are predictions which are updated versions of predictions from last year:

Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. Confidence: 75%

The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012. Confidence 95%

P != NP will not be resolved in 2013. Confidence 95%

General AI will not be built in 2013. Confidence: 95%

The next set of predictions is about computational complexity:

The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. Confidence: 85%

There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. Confidence: 52%

In 2012 there will be new results for either the group isomorphism problem or the graph isomorphism problem discussed at at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. Confidence: 52%.

No improvement in factoring integers in a classical setting that has better time-asymptotics than the best current ones will be made in 2012. Confidence: 85%

The next two predictions have to do with the integer complexity problem. (Background on that can be found here.)

No one one will resolve in 2012 whether integer complexity function is asymptotic to 3log_3 n. 58%

I will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity by 2013. Confidence: 61%

The next few predictions concern space travel and exploration.

Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012. Confidence: 98%

Russia will lose at least one rocket launch in 2012 . Confidence: 55%

No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012: Confidence 96%

The Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012. Confidence: 85%

Miscellaneous predictions:

HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012. Confidence: 75%

In 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area. Confidence: 58%

I will not become a vegetarian in 2012. Confidence: 80%

My mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year. Confidence: 85%

I will have a total LessWrong karma of at least 10,000 by the end of the year. Confidence: 75%

Meta-predictions:

At least one of the above predictions will turn out to be correct for reasons that are surprising to me. Confidence: 80%

Comment author: Sniffnoy 02 January 2012 11:50:59PM *  2 points [-]

P != NP will not be resolved in 2013. Confidence 95%

The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. Confidence: 85%

I find this confusing; I would expect P vs. BQP to be harder to resolve than P vs. NP.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 31 December 2011 08:00:06PM *  10 points [-]

A trustworhy friend has told me that there are two HPMOR chapters in the pipeline-- I could check the website, which is where he says he got the information, but what would be the fun in that?

There will be a US election. People will say they're sick of politics. One of the candidates will win.

Comment author: wedrifid 31 December 2011 08:22:10PM *  5 points [-]

A trustworhy friend has told me that there are two HPMOR chapters in the pipeline-- I could check the website, which is where he says he got the information, but what would be the fun in that?

This stranger on the internet confirms it! From the sounds of it the chapters are going to be long.

Comment author: Vaniver 31 December 2011 08:13:22PM 0 points [-]

One of the candidates will win.

I expect there will be 2 winners in the 2012 national US election with p>.99. :P

Comment author: Thomas 02 January 2012 03:04:32PM 8 points [-]

The year report for the 2012 of the SIAI will be approximately the same as for the 2011. No essentially new things mentioned. Confidence 0.9.

At least one event as important as Watson Jeopardy! will be announced by IBM or some other organization. Confidence 0.8.

Comment author: Thomas 01 January 2013 01:15:08PM 0 points [-]

The year report for the 2012 of the SIAI will be approximately the same as for the 2011. No essentially new things mentioned. Confidence 0.9.

AFAIK, I was right.

At least one event as important as Watson Jeopardy! will be announced by IBM or some other organization. Confidence 0.8.

SPAUN, Siri, real time video translations ... I was right.

Comment author: AspiringKnitter 02 January 2012 05:23:19AM 6 points [-]

Okay, this seems like nothing could possibly go wrong just from my making some educated guesses, right?

  1. 90%: the probabilities in this post are poorly calibrated, but things I think are likely will probably happen, and the converse is also true.

  2. 10%: I'll learn to play Magic: the Gathering by 2013.

  3. .1%: Singularity occurs before January 1, 2013.

  4. 80%: Occupy protests do not end before May.

  5. 90%: Judge Rotenberg Center continues torturing children at least through December 31, 2012.

  6. 99% There will be at least one update to Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality this year.

  7. 99% The Winds of Winter will not be released this year.

  8. 85% George R. R. Martin will not die this year.

Comment author: MileyCyrus 02 January 2012 05:11:38PM 2 points [-]

Occupy protests do not end before May.

How would you define "end"? Without a coherent leadership OWS cannot formally declare themselves finished. The most likely "end" for OWS will be that most of the protesters go home while a few stragglers will stick around for years.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 03 January 2012 05:28:20PM 2 points [-]

90%: Judge Rotenberg Center continues torturing children at least through December 31, 2012.

While I know nothing about the case, given that sentence has the same structure as 'have you stopped beating your wife' it may be hard to place a prediction on.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 03 January 2012 10:19:14PM *  3 points [-]

Rotenburg Center

I agree that this is torture. However, I recommend adding links for subjects which aren't common knowledge.

Another school-- uses mace rather than electric shocks

I have no strong opinion about when or whether these practices will be stopped.

Comment author: JoachimSchipper 03 January 2012 10:24:31AM 1 point [-]

Do you think you could make a hundred predictions like "Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be updated this year" or "The Winds of Winter will not be released this year" and only be wrong once? Maybe you're right, but your confidence seems high to me. (Note that 98% resp. 96% allows you two resp. four errors.)

Comment author: AspiringKnitter 03 January 2012 08:04:33PM 5 points [-]

Yes, I really mean that high confidence. The Winds of Winter is the sixth in a series; the fifth was released in July, six years after the fourth, which was released two years after it was due and five years after the third book. The author is slipping, the books are getting longer and less manageable and the author enjoys watching football. He's also spent a LONG time promoting his latest book so aggressively I'm just about sure he can't have been writing for months. It's just barely conceivable he could deliver a manuscript to a publisher in 2012, but if so, it would be late 2012, and it would be published in 2013. It essentially would be fighting the barriers of what's possible for him to do for him to actually get it done in time for a 2012 release date. Another author might do it, but not him and not his thousand-page doorstoppers.

For a non-abandoned fic like HP:MoR, with 76 updates in 22 months, where Eliezer actually has the next chapter completed already and is just trying to do two at once, it will take a catastrophe to keep an update from happening this year. (Hmm. Given the high likelihood of a catastrophe happening, maybe I did guess too high there.)

Comment author: gwern 03 January 2012 10:12:38PM 6 points [-]

I still think you are about 5% too high on both of those predictions, but at least you aren't being stupid in arriving at your probabilities.

(By the way, if you are wrong, you've done your future self a service by writing this comment - explaining in detail your reasons is one of the few known effective tactics against hindsight bias.)

Comment author: JoachimSchipper 04 January 2012 09:41:21AM *  1 point [-]

A bit off topic, but you seem to be doing this kind of thing a lot: is there any trick for calibrating high-/low-probability events? I can see how to figure out whether my 50% is 50% or 40%, but I'd need to make a lot of predictions to get a statistically useful number of 1% predictions wrong, even if my 1% is really 2% (a serious error!)

Comment author: gwern 04 January 2012 02:52:32PM 2 points [-]

Are there any tricks? Base-rates/frequencies (plus Laplace's law) and breaking down conjunctions (#2 and 3 in http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#how-i-make-predictions ).

Comment author: mfb 04 January 2012 11:21:13AM 2 points [-]

You can know that your numbers were wrong, if many of the 1-2% predictions become true. But there is no way to find out (by looking at the outcome) whether it was 1% or 2% without several hundred predictions.

Comment author: MixedNuts 07 January 2012 09:58:51PM 0 points [-]

Betting time!

Well, unless your or AspiringKnitter's bid-ask spread is too wide.

Comment author: gwern 07 January 2012 11:00:47PM 0 points [-]

A 5% difference isn't enough to bet on - I don't make bets that often so gambler's ruin becomes an issue.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 02 January 2012 06:02:13AM 1 point [-]

nothing could possibly go wrong just from my making some educated guesses, right?

Well, there are potential self-fulfilling prophecy effects, but I suspect the only one for which they're worth even mentioning is #2, and it's not clear that such an effect would constitute "going wrong".

Comment author: Thomas 03 January 2012 03:30:10PM 4 points [-]

I am also predicting, that:

1 - neutrinos will be faster than light in 2012 (60% confidence)

2 - Higgs boson will NOT be seen in 2012 (85% confidence)

Comment author: mfb 04 January 2012 11:38:59AM 3 points [-]

My predictions to these topics: No experiment apart from OPERA will measure a neutrino speed >c with a significance of more than 3 sigma in 2012: 85% - where the 15% are mainly related to measurement errors OPERA or others will find a significant error in OPERAs measurements in 2012: 50%

Higgs boson will be seen with a local 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 90% - the current signal is quite clear already, even without the magic 5 sigma. So I expect that new data will increase the significance. From the 10%, a large part is related to possible problems with the LHC, it includes serious analysis problems, bad luck and the simple "there is no higgs". Higgs boson will be seen with a global 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 85% - this needs a bit more data than the local significance.

No other new particles will be seen with 5 sigma significance in 2012: 75% - up to now, I did not see any hint for a new particle from both collaborations, so I think there is no 3sigma evidence for anything at the moment

The LHC will collide protons with lead at the end of 2012: 75% - it was tested in 2011, but technical problems prevented collisions

Comment author: Thomas 04 January 2012 11:48:56AM 3 points [-]

This is great. You have predictions quite opposite to mines and we will see who is more right quite clearly.

I wish there was more dueling predictions.

Comment author: mfb 24 February 2012 09:19:56PM *  0 points [-]

"OPERA or others will find a significant error in OPERAs measurements in 2012: 50%"

This already became true, even if we don't know the size (or even the direction) of the effect yet.

After hearing a talk of an ATLAS higgs researcher, an update lowered my higgs expectations a bit: ATLAS and CMS will present a signal signifiance (local and global) of 5 sigma with the data of (2011+)2012 in combination at some time in the future: 85%

With a presentation of results (and 5 sigma, from any dataset) in 2012: 70%

Comment author: mfb 01 January 2013 12:45:50PM *  2 points [-]

Let's see.

  • No superluminal neutrinos (85%) -> true
  • OPERA measurement error (50%) -> true
  • Higgs boson with local (90%) and global (85%) 5sigma significance (updated to 70% below) -> true
  • No other new particle (75%) -> true
  • Proton-lead-collisions (75%): This is an interesting prediction. The collisions took place, but in september. and LHC plans to collide more in february. As I posted my prediction, such a deviation from the plan was somewhere at "other things I don't even think about", therefore I did not care about a precise definition of "end of 2012". Open to interpretations.

From the other comment with predictions:

  • The discovery of at least one planet with less than 150% of earth's radius within the habitable zone around a main-sequence star will be presented in 2012: 75% (+"with Kepler": 70%) -> wrong
Comment author: Thomas 01 January 2013 01:11:15PM 1 point [-]

1 - neutrinos will be faster than light in 2012 (60% confidence)

I was wrong.

2 - Higgs boson will NOT be seen in 2012 (85% confidence)

Was "seen indirectly". Exceeded my expectations.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 03 January 2012 05:21:06PM 1 point [-]

Quibble, presumably you mean neutrinos will be proven to be travelling faster than speed of light?

Comment author: Thomas 03 January 2012 05:36:28PM 2 points [-]

Not proven. The next experiment(s) in 2012 will say the same as those of 2011 and earlier.

Still, the result will not be widely accepted as a proof.

And I give another prediction. Several "Earth like planets" will be in the media. And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".

Comment author: Thomas 01 January 2013 01:18:18PM 0 points [-]

And I give another prediction. Several "Earth like planets" will be in the media. And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".

There were, sure. And the standard phrase "may be more habitable planets than previously thought" was also there.

And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".

That is exactly what has happened.

Comment author: [deleted] 31 December 2011 08:01:17PM 4 points [-]

Some 2012-specific stuff. It's all a bit fluff-y, but unfortunately in all the high-status areas I either won't do better than the base rate or have just made it past Mount Stupid and really don't feel like making predictions just yet. I'm hoping for others to post way-too-confident comments I can make cynical predictions about. Anyway:

I'm also practicing my "that was a totally lame twist and I called it ages ago" skills. (Obviously spoilers behind links, but not in this comment.)

I've done fairly well with Dexter's 6th season (three notable predictions) and have added some about season 7, but as I intentionally only follow the series itself, most serious predictions will have to wait for the first episode (except for the important one).

(Unfortunately I don't watch any "lame twist" shows besides Dexter right now, but I'm checking if I missed some.)

Comment author: shminux 01 January 2012 05:47:02AM 7 points [-]

And of course: the world doesn't end on 12/21

What are the odds of this being judged wrong?

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 01 January 2012 03:26:53PM *  4 points [-]

And of course: the world doesn't end on 12/21, probably, but I'm still giving it a 1% shot. I'm not sure if my sanity's slipping again, but "we are in a supervised simulation" still seems not too implausible (say, 0.01% <= p <= 20%).

So given that we're in a supervised simulation, the world ends on December 21st with p>1/20 ?

Comment author: [deleted] 01 January 2012 03:47:23PM 1 point [-]

Yes. It's a sufficiently weird feature of the kind of simulation I would join. An apocalypse seems fitting, and 12/21 is the most prominent date we had since Y2K, but it's more surreal and a nice numerological coincidence, so more likely. (See Theory of Narrative Causation.)

Comment author: Baughn 03 January 2012 02:44:23PM *  1 point [-]

I'll state here, for the record, that at some point in the future (post-singularity?) I intent to implement Sburb, grab some friends, suppress their memories (and mine) and make a proper game of it. I made this decision back in 2011, when I first ran into Homestuck.

It is in the nature of my personality that I would probably be unable to resist using 2012 for the start date, not least since I have a bunch of nieces and nephews at the appropriate age to be players right now. :P

I have no idea how to assign a probability to this currently being the case, though. ^^;

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 31 December 2011 05:28:59PM 4 points [-]

I am deeply interested in predictions regarding the progress of the charter city projects in Honduras, though I can't make any meaningful predictions on the topic myself.

Comment author: gwern 31 December 2011 05:37:31PM 6 points [-]

If I were interested in the topic, I'd be making predictions on population size, gross domestic product, crime rates, and changes in legal jurisdiction - since all of them seem like they'd vary considerably if the charter city is successful or a failure.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 03 January 2012 12:44:01PM 1 point [-]
Comment author: Armok_GoB 31 December 2011 10:29:57PM 13 points [-]

Most of the predictions in this thread will turn out to have been overconfident

The above prediction will turn out to have been overconfident.

All three predictions in this post will turn out to have been overconfident.

:p

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 January 2012 09:16:46AM *  2 points [-]

Most of the predictions in this thread will turn out to have been overconfident

This is tough to score objectively because not all the predictions in this thread assign a numerical probability to the prediction statement.

Also, because of that whole P(¬X) = 1 - P(X) thing, any deviation from perfect calibration (whether under or overconfidence) is necessarily overconfidence (if not of that particular proposition, then the negation of that proposition).

Comment author: JoshuaZ 03 January 2012 02:49:43AM 2 points [-]

There are ways of measuring overconfidence. People make declarations in a positive sense with a probability greater than 50%. They are overconfident in the sense that when framed that way, they assign too high a probability to the more likely outcome. This is also testable by a variety of metrics. For example, you could do a calculation where one assumes that there's a betting market and everyone here has made a $1 even bet with their confidence as given in this thread. Then, if they are overconfident in the above sense, one expects that the total result over all bets will be a loss.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 03 January 2012 03:11:17PM 1 point [-]

Trying to work out if there are any falsification conditions for the above...

Comment author: taelor 04 January 2012 10:56:24PM 1 point [-]

Count all the predictions that were assigned a 90% probability, and determine if the percentage that were correct is less than 90%? Repeat for all other probabilities?

Comment author: Anubhav 09 January 2012 07:48:17AM *  12 points [-]

(Reposting because parent was downvoted below default visibility. Original post here)

There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs. The US will send aid but will not directly engage Israel's enemies. Japan will join in on Israel's side after the radicals sink oil tankers on the way to Japan. The Russians will sit this one out. Turkey may or may not take part, but if they do it will be against Israel.

On February 13th, President Obama will be assassinated by ninjas. This will lead to a political crisis, which Sarah Palin will exploit to get elected to the White House. On August 18, in a public address to a worried nation, the Secretary of State will declare, 'Two nukes were not enough'. To prevent the destruction of the Holy Grail, Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres and the Organisation will forge a temporary alliance with the intent of neutralizing America's nuclear arsenal. The plan will fail because of sabotage by SEELE. In desperation, Harry Potter will kill every member of the American administration using the Death Note. He will be summoned by the Wizengamot to answer charges of violating the Statute of Secrecy. Having discovered the SEELE plot, however, he will go to Antarctica and attempt to stop it instead of returning to Britain. The Wizengamot will then rule for the repossession of the assets of Potter Finance, and Lord Draco Malfoy will be unable to overrule them. This will trigger civil war in Magical Britain, which will eventually engulf the rest of Magical Europe.

Meanwhile, in Japan, the remnants of the Tohsaka and Matou clans, the late Kiritsugu Emiya's band, and the Church will forge an alliance to deal with the combined forces of the Chaos Legion and the Organisation. They will be defeated, but Ginevra Weasley and Neville Longbottom will be assassinated by Shirou Emiya and Rin Tohsaka respectively. The Organisation and the Legion will try to backstab each other simultaneously, which the Integrated Data Entity and the Sky Canopy Dominion will try to take advantage of. Yuki Nagato will attempt to betray the Entity and will be deleted from existence as a consequence. In retaliation, Kyon will use his trump card on Haruhi Suzumiya, whose annoyance with this whole long-winded FUBAR will create a timequake so severe that it will cause the Second and Third Impacts to occur simultaneously, wiping out all life on earth except for a timid boy and a narcissistic girl with mommy issues. This will happen on December 21.

.... Wow, so the Mayans were right?

Confidence: 99% (Thanks to katydee for the reminder.)

</prediction>

Discussion about a possible fic based on this bizarre mish-mash of universes may be found here

Comment author: AspiringKnitter 09 January 2012 07:52:24AM 3 points [-]

Mayans. Not Mayas. /annoying nitpick

Comment author: Anubhav 09 January 2012 07:59:21AM 3 points [-]

Fixed.

Comment author: fortyeridania 09 January 2012 08:30:00AM 3 points [-]

Why is this in the negative?

Comment author: Anubhav 09 January 2012 08:36:13AM *  4 points [-]

Someone's downvoting the post and every single reply to it. Why? I have no idea.

EDIT: And now someone upvoted every single reply. Heisenberg FTW.

Comment author: dbaupp 14 February 2012 06:54:55AM 1 point [-]

Oops!

(It's a little embarrassing to make a mistake for such a high confidence prediction! But I'm sure LW won't judge you too much. ;) )

Comment author: adamisom 12 January 2012 05:29:14AM *  0 points [-]

Haha, I get the point you're making. Very well done, too.

But, hm... real scenarios are, or should be, more tightly interlinked than fictional scenarios, and it could be that international-relations scenarios are so constrained that that prediction might not be ridiculous. I mean, I'd expect the responses of countries to a nuclear war between Iran and Israel to be a lot more constrained / predictable than responses to most international incidents.

Comment author: Anubhav 12 January 2012 07:32:59AM 2 points [-]

Ah, but how much more predictable? The devil is in the numbers.

And either way, several events in this particular sequence are still bizarre.

Comment author: paper-machine 31 December 2011 05:38:46PM 8 points [-]

These are already on PredictionBook:

Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin’s diet for at least three months in the next two years. PB link, link to diet.

If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin’s diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. PB link.

Comment author: Cthulhoo 02 January 2012 03:48:16PM 3 points [-]

Ok, let's join the party! Personal:

I will manage to rent my grandparent's house before the end of the year 40% I will manage to sell my grandparent's house before the end of the year 15% (Neither of the two happens 45%)

My girlfriend will come to live with me in my flat before the end of the year: 60%

I will manage to stabilize my weight between 70 and 73 kilos: 50%

I will buy more than 50 musical records on physical support (cd / vinyl) 70%

I will finally do a complete inventory of my music collection 30%

In case the previous happens, I will turn out to own more than 1000 albums 80%

I will end up fighting with my very fervent and freshly converted friend because of a joke about religion I made 20%

Sport

Roger Federer will win at least one grand slam tournament or the olympic gold medal 70%

No Italian football team will reach the semifinals of the Europa League or the Champions League 75%

Italy will win between 8 and 12 gold medal at the summer olympics games 80%

(Italian) politics, economy and society

There will be an election round in 2012 80%

Neither of the two biggest parties will get more than 30% of the preferences if the previous happens 70%

Italy won't default 95%

Price of gas will reach a peak greater than 2.00 € / liter 40%

The Catholic Church will still be exempted from the payment of the IMU (tax on the property of buildings) 95%

Miscellaneous

ATLAS and CMS will announce the discovery of the Higgs Boson 95%

No other new particles will be discovered (5 sigma significance) in 2012 60%

HPMOR won't be finished before the end of the year 60%

The mean temperature in Europe during July will be higher than the corresponding one in 2011 75%

Comment author: AnthonyC 08 January 2012 05:47:18PM 0 points [-]

About your grandparent's house: i seems to me like once you specify the probability of renting and selling at 40% and 15%, you have already decided that the probability of neither happening would be 1-(1-.4)(1-.15)=49%. This appears inconsistent with the 45% prediction, or am I missing something?

Comment author: army1987 08 January 2012 06:47:33PM 1 point [-]

He's assuming he won't rent it and then sell it, so the three possibilities (renting, selling, and neither) are mutually exclusive, and they do sum up to 100% as they should.

Comment author: Andy_McKenzie 02 January 2012 01:33:44AM 3 points [-]

Added some predictions:

1) 75%: On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb’s top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5059)

2) 50%: On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb’s top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5060)

3) 85%: The Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb’s top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5061)

4) 60%: 12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb’s top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5062)

5) 10%: By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5063)

6) 50%: At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5064)

Comment author: Andy_McKenzie 02 January 2012 01:37:18AM *  3 points [-]

Number 5 is my somewhat lame attempt at a feature request. What I mean is that, for example, on #6, I'd like to be able to say, that I assign, say, a 15% chance to there being 0 such papers, a 15% chance of 1, a 20% chance of 2, and so on. Of course, I could make multiple predictions, but this is tedious. It'd be really nice to be able to assign probabilities to a full range of quantities on one question. (And I expect it would make my predictions more accurate, too.) Each individual probability assignment would have to be judged "correct" or "incorrect" independently.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 January 2012 04:44:51PM 1 point [-]

4) 60%: 12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb’s top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5062)

60% seems way too high to me. The number of votes on 12 Angry Men and Pulp Fiction are both very high- for one to move up and the other to move down seems like it would require a large number of votes distributed differently from past votes.

Comment author: Costanza 02 January 2012 04:47:02AM *  10 points [-]

I predict that the youtube music video with the most views of 2012 will either be:

1) A Farsi reggae version of "Good King Wenceslas", by an Iranian who has publicly wished for the death of Barack Obama or;

2) A pudgy middle-aged guy singing about some district of Seol that no non-Koreans have ever heard about. In Korean. Also, he will have publicly expressed the wish that the family members of American servicemembers will die.

And the president will watch this performance and applaud.

ALSO I predict that at least one American presidential candidate will publicly take a stance against a major character from Sesame Street.

ALSO I predict that the Queen of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Great Britain will be seen parachuting into London, or at least her stunt double will do so with her apparent consent, if not pleasure.

Most fearsome of all: I predict (rot13 for the faint of heart)

Guvf pbzzrag vf n cynprubyqre. V cerqvpg gung, nobhg n lrne sebz abj, V'yy rqvg guvf pbzzrag gb ergebnpgviryl znxr zlfrys ybbx oevyyvnag. Ng guvf cbvag, V fubhyq cebonoyl vafreg fbzr xvaq bs rzbgvpba be fbzrguvat gb vaqvpngr gung V'z abg pbzcyrgryl frevbhf. Ba frpbaq gubhtug, V pbhyq qb gung ergebnpgviryl nf jryy.

Unccl arj lrne, YrffJebat! Guvf lrne, znl nyy bs hf or yrff jebat guna jr jrer ynfg lrne!

C.F. V'q or tengrshy sbe ercyl pbzzragf nybat gur yvarf bs, fnl, "Arire! Pyrneyl lbh ner rvgure znq be -- vs guvf cerqvpgvba pbzrf gehr -- n travhf!" Gunaxf va nqinapr.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 03 January 2012 03:16:37PM 7 points [-]

I predict changes will be made to LessWrong's interface within the year that will make this impossible (e.g. a 'edited' date marker). 50%

I also predict you will forget about this comment or for some other reason not in fact edit it. 90%

Comment author: Costanza 03 January 2013 10:18:17PM 2 points [-]

Very nearly right about me forgetting, but it's a year to the day. Happy new year!

Comment author: [deleted] 02 January 2012 05:34:21AM 10 points [-]

This comment is a placeholder. I predict that, about a year from now, I'll edit this comment to retroactively make myself look brilliant. At this point, I should probably insert some kind of emoticon or something to indicate that I'm not completely serious. On second thought, I could do that retroactively as well.

oh yeah?

Comment author: Solvent 02 January 2012 05:43:59AM 11 points [-]

oh yeah? ALSO I EAT KITTENS

Two can play at this game.

Comment author: FAWS 02 January 2012 03:47:53PM 10 points [-]

Incorrect, since nyan_sandwich's post lacks the asterix after the posting time marking an edited post.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 January 2012 08:09:11AM 0 points [-]

misquoting me

I don't know what to say...

Comment author: Caspian 07 January 2012 11:21:26PM 3 points [-]

This comment is a placeholder. I predict that, about a year from now, I'll edit this comment to retroactively make myself look brilliant. At this point, I should probably insert some kind of emoticon or something to indicate that I'm not completely serious. On second thought, I could do that retroactively as well.

oh yeah?

I endorse the parent comment as being honestly quoted from the grandparent comment, which does not contain further predictions.

Comment author: TimS 02 January 2012 05:21:37AM 7 points [-]

It is hard for me to articulate how unlikely this is to occur. You are either the most sublime genius to ever exist, or a giant fool.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 02 January 2012 05:05:47AM 6 points [-]

Never! Clearly you are either mad or -- if this prediction comes true -- a genius!

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 January 2012 05:31:18AM *  3 points [-]

Not to be a drag, but your evil schemes will come to naught. When you edit a post it changes the date next to your name and adds an asterisk at the end, thereby destroying your illusion of prescience.

EDIT: The italicized and bolded text above is incorrect as pointed out by wedrifid.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 January 2012 07:30:04AM *  6 points [-]

Does it?

EDIT: This comment has been edited after the child comment.

EDIT: Didn't think so. The asterix is added, of course. The date doesn't change.

EDIT: In case the purpose of this was missed (it seems to have been). I saw something wrong, but before I corrected I realized that I might be overconfident. So the right thing to do is test!

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 January 2012 07:37:59AM 7 points [-]

I tested it for myself and falsified my original claim about the date. Thanks for making me less wrong.

Comment author: _ozymandias 01 January 2012 06:38:19PM *  9 points [-]

Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee: 80%.

Obama will win reelection: 90%.with a non-Romney presidential nominee, 50% against Romney

The Occupy Wall Street protests will fade away over the next year so much that I no longer hear much about them, even in my little liberal hippie news bubble: 75%

There will be massive fanboy backlash against The Hobbit: 80%. Despite this, the Hobbit will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes): 70%

John Carter will be a pretty good movie (above 75% on Rotten Tomatoes). 85% Whether or not it is a good movie, I will love it. 95%

I will get my first death or rape threat this year: 80% My reaction to the death or rape threat will be elation that I've finally made it in feminist blogging: 95% Even if it isn't I will totally say it is in order to seem cooler: 99%

My comod and I will complete the NSWATM spinoff book this year: 75% It will be published as an ebook: 80% It will not make the transition to dead-tree-book this year: 90% It will make the transition to dead-tree-book eventually: 60%

I will break up with my girlfriend at some point over the next year: 60%.

I will acquire a new partner at some point over the next year: 90%.

Comment author: MileyCyrus 02 January 2012 05:14:03PM 9 points [-]

I will get my first death or rape threat this year: 80% My reaction to the death or rape threat will be elation that I've finally made it in feminist blogging: 95% Even if it isn't I will totally say it is in order to seem cooler.

You haven't gotten one yet?

I once had a totally non-political blog with less than 1000 views per month, and I still got a few.

Comment author: _ozymandias 02 January 2012 11:00:14PM 1 point [-]

No death or rape threats. I have yet to come up with a theory about why (beyond "crazy random happenstance" and "I'm so nice no one wants to rape and murder me"); suggestions appreciated.

Comment author: MixedNuts 08 January 2012 12:14:47AM 2 points [-]

I feel tempted to send you some extremely silly and colorful threats just so you can check off that milestone. ("I will pay Pinky from Pinky and the Brain to invent a time-travel machine to genetically modify your great-great-grandparents so that you end up with a lethal allergy to Cornish pasties, and then I will mail you a Cornish pasty!")

Comment author: falenas108 02 January 2012 02:24:22AM 7 points [-]

I will break up with my girlfriend at some point over the next year: 60%.

I sincerely hope your girlfriend does not read this site, or at least doesn't know your username.

Comment author: gwern 02 January 2012 02:48:26AM 10 points [-]

Well, you see, that 60% already factors in that possibility.

Comment author: _ozymandias 02 January 2012 03:04:48AM *  14 points [-]

My girlfriend knows and is highly amused at my pessimism.

My logic is that I have never actually had a relationship that went much beyond the six-month mark, and while there are all kinds of factors that mean that this one is different and will stand the test of time, all of my other relationships also had all kinds of factors that meant this one is different and will stand the test of time.

The prediction is only 60%, however, since I might have actually gotten better at relationships since the last go-round. And because my girlfriend is really fucking awesome. :)

Comment author: TheOtherDave 02 January 2012 02:49:22AM 1 point [-]

Are you assuming that ozy's girlfriend is unaware of this prediction? If so, why?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 03 January 2012 09:20:11PM 1 point [-]

My opinion is that a lot of the OWS folks are conferring and planning during the winter, and will continue to protest but will be doing something other than occupying public or semi-public spaces. I don't know how to frame this as a testable prediction.

Comment author: MBlume 08 January 2012 06:22:29AM 0 points [-]

When you make a series of predictions A, B, and C, are the probabilities you give for B and C conditional on A coming out in such a way that B and C make sense?

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 22 January 2012 12:48:51PM 2 points [-]

A list of my predictions for 2012 can be found here. They are far too numerous to bother listing them in this thread.

Comment author: [deleted] 16 January 2012 12:27:26AM 2 points [-]

If anyone wants a laugh, the BBC has a list of user-submitted predictions for 2112. The most amusing part is not the predictions themselves, but the "likelihood" the article gives them.

Comment author: gwern 24 January 2012 03:36:00AM 0 points [-]
  1. Mm. I don't think I can narrow this down to any degree - by many metrics, we already do this sort of mariculture.
  2. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5470
  3. Too vague given all the possible Singularities and posthuman scenarios
  4. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5471
  5. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5472
  6. Too hard to define what is a currency
  7. Too vague - what is augmentation?
  8. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5473
  9. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5474
  10. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5475
  11. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5476
  12. Too vague, what is 'lead'?
  13. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5477
  14. Too vague, what is routinely? Seems pretty routine now...
  15. Too vague
  16. I'd like to register a low confidence prediction here, but... which deserts? Deserts usually shift. (This wouldn't be hard - for example, a prediction that the Sahara will shrink.)
  17. Too vague
  18. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5479
  19. Too vague
  20. Too vague
Comment author: Solvent 16 January 2012 01:03:16AM 0 points [-]

Oh dear.

Comment author: knb 14 January 2012 10:52:48AM 2 points [-]
  1. Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination (90%.)
  2. More than 1000 US troops (including soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen) remain in Israel for at least 6 months after the ongoing joint military exercises are over. (75%)
  3. Ron Paul fails to win any states in the Republican primary. (75% probability).
  4. No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%)
  5. US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%)
  6. Israel or the United States make no overt attack against Iran. (Covert drone strikes, missile strikes, or assassinations wouldn't count.) (85%)
  7. United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)
Comment author: gwern 24 January 2012 03:42:34AM 1 point [-]
Comment author: gwern 01 February 2013 04:46:53PM 0 points [-]

United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)

Update on this?

Comment author: Jack 01 February 2013 05:17:10PM 1 point [-]

I'm pretty sure the US ceased to be a net fuel importer for 2011. But there is some ambiguity in "fuel".

Comment author: gwern 01 February 2013 08:08:51PM *  4 points [-]

My own understanding was that fuel should refer to petroleum in general; if it referred only to refined processed end-stage fuel, we'd reach conclusions like 'Iran is a massive net fuel importer' (because while Iran exports plenty of oil, they don't have the working refineries to turn it into gasoline etc). So for me the relevant part of that article would be

Total net crude and product imports fell 11 percent from a year earlier to 8.436 million barrels a day, the lowest level since 1995, department data showed.

Comment author: knb 02 February 2013 06:00:47AM 0 points [-]

Since I said "fuel" instead of "oil", I assume I meant refined fuels only (e.g. home heating oil, diesel, gasoline, etc.). But as Jack pointed out, it seems like that milestone was passed in 2011, so I would call it false.

Comment author: gwern 02 February 2013 04:51:44PM 0 points [-]

Alright, I'll mark it false then.

Comment author: FAWS 24 January 2012 07:59:38PM 0 points [-]

United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)

Just fuel, not figuring in crude oil?
Does this require that the United States still was a net fuel importer at the end of 2011? Or is it just a prediction that the USA will not import more fuel than it exports during 2012?

Comment author: Kevin 04 January 2012 11:51:36AM *  2 points [-]

I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize (either by myself or as part of a team), conditional on me submitting an entry that took me at least 40 hours of work: 95%

Comment author: adamisom 12 January 2012 05:32:42AM 1 point [-]

You may have just decreased your prior likelihood given that one of us may have read that and thought hmm, if it's relatively not a ton of work, maybe it's more worth giving a shot.

Just putting that out there. 95%, huh? Would you be willing to make a bet?

Comment author: Kevin 14 January 2012 11:45:54AM 1 point [-]

Also, more likely than people reading this and going on to make a submission is that people read that, think that, try giving it a shot and then give up in disgust because nutrition is not actually a science, it's just a field where scientists pretend they are doing science. The literature is somewhere between awful and useless. I think Personalized Medicine is going to be disappointed in the results of the contest because it's so hard to make conclusions as evidence backed as would seem likely before digging into the literature.

Comment author: Kevin 12 January 2012 05:37:48AM *  0 points [-]

No, I'm disinclined from taking bets at 20:1 odds no matter what my confidence. However, I'd take a 1:1 bet on me (or my team) winning first prize.

Comment author: D_Alex 16 January 2012 08:26:27AM 2 points [-]

I'll take that bet, conditional on your removing the "at least 40 hours" provision.

I'll take the bet because I want to encourage you to actually put in a good submission... I prefer the bet amount to be symbolic rather than substantial. I offer "the Groupon deal for dinner for two in the city of your residence", provided there is such a thing in the place where you live.

Are we on?

Comment author: Kevin 16 January 2012 11:51:56AM *  1 point [-]

Sure. Let's just call it $25, since Groupon for my local area only has deals for towns 10 miles away.

I submitted what I think is a great entry, that took me around 100 hours of work + 20 hours from a partner. It's over 9000 words.

[Your bet would have been more usefully motivating if proposed before the paper was due]

Comment author: D_Alex 17 January 2012 04:08:36AM 0 points [-]

Good to hear, and good luck (to the extent that luck is in fact involved...).

[Your bet would have been more usefully motivating if proposed before the paper was due]

On reflection... you already had $5000 to aim for. So now the stakes are up by, heh, 1%.

Comment author: gwern 24 January 2012 03:46:05AM 0 points [-]
Comment author: Kevin 24 January 2012 05:13:22AM *  0 points [-]

Yup, fulfilled the conditional. I also almost made that prediction read that I or my team will get 1st place with 70% probability but didn't want to make that signal before people submitted. So I'll make it now.

I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)

Comment author: gwern 24 January 2012 07:24:14PM 0 points [-]
Comment author: Eugine_Nier 02 January 2012 08:23:59PM 2 points [-]

SOPA will not pass congress. 75%

Comment author: [deleted] 02 January 2012 10:42:21PM *  4 points [-]

SOPA will return in some form and cause another internet uproar: 50%

EDIT: Let's make this independent of other bets: Another attempted internet blacklist bill will cause an uproar in 2012. By 'another' I mean not the current version of SOPA currently being processed.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 January 2012 01:18:23PM 2 points [-]

P(Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ) = 0.20

Note: I increased my probability estimate since I originally made the prediction based on the fact that I just made a comment in a high-profile thread in the Main section discussing it.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 31 December 2011 08:07:04PM 2 points [-]

gwern, a nitpick on "So I applied this heuristic: what does the existence of an 130 year-old in 2025 imply about people in 2011? Well, if someone is 130 in 2025, then that implies that are now 116 years old (130-(2025-2011)). Then I looked up the oldest person in the world: Besse Cooper, aged 115 years old."

It's quite plausible that records will turn up within the next 13 years to show that someone is 116 years old now.

Comment author: gwern 31 December 2011 08:19:09PM 4 points [-]

Is it? Could you name some previous instances where records turned up in the past few decades for a supercentenarian where the new claim was accepted and didn't look like a scam?

Comment author: gwern 31 December 2011 04:51:34PM 2 points [-]
Comment author: wedrifid 31 December 2011 06:06:25PM 8 points [-]

Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” (30%)

Of all the things to have a prediction market on the future value of something traded on a market seems among the least useful. If my prediction regarding the above was positive then I would bet by buying a lot of bitcoins (which are currently priced below the lower bound).

Comment author: gwern 31 December 2011 06:25:08PM 3 points [-]

Indeed. In kiba's case, he's holding onto around 1000 or so bitcoins and doesn't have any cash to spare for buying more. (Personally, I think he's dangerously undiversified and should - at the very least - have sell orders in at 5 or 10 bucks.)

Comment author: PhilGoetz 31 December 2011 09:38:27PM *  6 points [-]

The U.S. Presidential candidate who spends the most money on his campaign will be elected.

Comment author: wedrifid 01 January 2012 04:02:37AM 1 point [-]

The U.S. Presidential candidate who spends the most money on his campaign will be elected.

Why is this downvoted? Too obvious?

Comment author: gwern 01 January 2012 04:17:39AM 11 points [-]

Hard to judge, thanks to the Citizens case, and I can't help but wonder if it's near tautology - the more popular candidate wins, and also raises the most.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 January 2012 10:27:49AM *  3 points [-]

It's not a tautology because they are not logically equivalent (heh), but a spurious correlation, yes.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 January 2012 10:25:41AM 1 point [-]
Comment author: Eugine_Nier 01 January 2012 08:13:41PM 1 point [-]

I was going to assign this prediction 50%, then I remembered the effect gwern mentioned here.

Comment author: taelor 03 January 2012 06:58:18AM *  3 points [-]

All predictions are for 2012.

Homestuck:

Andrew Hussie releases at least one flash lasting longer than 10 minutes: 65%

Karkat, Terezi, John, Dave, Rose and Jade will not be permanently removed from story (Being killed off but returning as a ghost/sprite/whatever doesn't count as being permanently removed; being killed off and spending eternity in a dream-bubble and having no further contribution to the story does): 80%

The hints that Betty Crocker/Her Imperious Condesencion is running post-scratch Desrse will prove to be misdirection on Hussie's part: 20%

Baseball:

The San Francisco Giants will have a winning season. 80%

The Giants will make the postseason (either as NL West Champions or as a Wildcard team): 50%

Pablo Sandoval will hit at least 25 home runs: 80%

Ryan Braun will successfully appeal his suspension: 45%

Albert Pujols will finish the season with a batting average below .300: 65%

Comment author: MagnetoHydroDynamics 03 January 2012 11:10:33AM 3 points [-]

Homestuck:

Casually wonders how many Homestuckers on LW.

Comment author: Polymeron 04 January 2012 02:04:32AM *  2 points [-]

I somehow never thought to combine Homestuck wild mass guessing with prediction markets. And didn't really expect this on LW, for some reason. Holy cow.

Hm, let's try my two favorite pet theories...

  • In a truly magnificent Moebius double reacharound, The troll universe will turn out to have been created by the kids' session (either pre- or post- scratch): 40% (used to be higher, but now we have some asymmetries between the sessions, like The Tumor, so.)

  • In an even more bizarre mindscrew that echoes paradox cloning, the various kids and guardians will turn out to be the same people in both sessions (e.g. Poppop Crocker is the very same John we know, the Bro that cuts the meteor is the same one who programmed the auto-responder, etc.). That means that, at least for the Derse dreamers, each of them raised their own guardian, probably inflicting upon them whichever neurosis they got from them in the first place. 35% on this one, because it entails some heavy-duty time shenaniganry. But I still like this one best :3

And on a more light-hearted note... Human-troll sloppy makeouts to happen at any point in the story: 90%

(all these predictions are not time-bound to 2012 - apply until the end of the story, including the Epilogue)

Comment author: taelor 13 January 2012 11:29:10AM 1 point [-]

Post-Scratch!Bro will be revealed as the Hero of Mind: 65%.

Comment author: paper-machine 22 January 2012 11:57:22AM 1 point [-]

Dirk Strider is the Prince of Heart. Sorry, taelor.

Comment author: taelor 16 January 2012 03:29:49AM 1 point [-]

Well, that was bust. Heart it is.

Comment author: taelor 04 January 2012 02:22:03AM 1 point [-]

Hussie will tease various ships, but ultimately, none will be made canon: 55%.

Comment author: MixedNuts 08 January 2012 12:07:49AM 1 point [-]

That seems vastly underconfident and I don't even know what Homestuck is. My guess is that the "not canon" part is what drives it down. Some slight research suggests this is a correct estimation of the author's attitude.

Comment author: Bugmaster 04 January 2012 12:41:10AM 1 point [-]

... . .-. . -. .. - -.-- / .-. ..- .-.. . ...

Comment author: taelor 25 February 2012 02:58:12AM 0 points [-]

Ryan Braun will successfully appeal his suspension: 45%

Confirmed

Comment author: taelor 21 January 2012 02:27:51AM *  0 points [-]

Karkat, Terezi, John, Dave, Rose and Jade will not be permanently removed from story (Being killed off but returning as a ghost/sprite/whatever doesn't count as being permanently removed; being killed off and spending eternity in a dream-bubble and having no further contribution to the story does): 80%

Considering that all but one of the character's named above are now about as close to being literally immortal as it's possible to get in the setting, I'm upping this to at least 85%.

Also, predicting that Terezi will get Godtiered as well (p=50%).

Comment author: FiftyTwo 03 January 2012 04:45:11PM *  5 points [-]

World politics:

One or more new 'revolutions' (described as such by international media) will take place. 80% - At least one of which will be in Sub-Saharan Africa: 60%

Fidel Castro will die, or has already died and it will be officially confirmed 90%.

Open hostilities will take place between Iran and another country 60%.

Vladimir Putin will become president of Russia: 95% - There will be significant rioting with civilian injuries in Russia: 70% - There will be substansive political change in Russia 5%.

UK politics

The coalition government will break up 10%. - One of the 3 major parties will change leader 50%.

Some random personal predictions as I find the exercise interesting:

I will have sexual interactions with one or more women. 95% [Here defining sexual interactions as something that would require an 18 certificate to display in a film, and women by their own self definition). - I will have an 'official' relationship 25% (defined as one where we both alter our facebook statuses to 'in a relationship'.) - I will have sexual relations with one or more men 1% (the prospect doesn't currently appeal to me, but given my observations of sexual preference variability in others I can't rule it out).

I will graduate university this summer. 90% - Assuming I graduate it will be with a grade of 2:1. 80% 1st 10% Other 10%

I will miss one or more deadlines due to ongoing depression and anxiety issues 80% (I would like to say lower, but given past results that seems unlikely from an outside view. )

I will break at at least one debating competition. 70%. (Break meaning entering semi finals or final depending on size of competition). I will win a Debating competition 20%.

I will attend the European debating championships. 80%. Assuming the preceding: I will be in the top half of speaker scores 95%. Top 100 60%. Top 50 10%. Break 25%.

Travel outisde UK 99%. (I intend to book tickets in the next week), - Travel outside EU 50% (no current plans but most of yea is unplanned and I wish to.

LW

This post will have positive Karma 90%. - Karma >5 50%. - Karma >10 10%.

Comment author: dbaupp 03 January 2012 11:12:39PM 2 points [-]

defined as one where we both alter our facebook statuses to 'in a relationship'.

What about a relationship where one of the parties doesn't have a facebook account (or some other circumstance where there is a definite/mutually-acknowledged/etc relationship, but no facebook status change)?

Comment author: orthonormal 04 January 2012 12:45:18AM 1 point [-]

This post will have positive Karma 90%. - Karma >5 50%. - Karma >10 10%.

My default response to a comment predicting its own karma is to downvote.

Comment author: PlacidPlatypus 04 January 2012 12:00:54AM 1 point [-]

At what point will you check the Karma value? The end of the year?

Comment author: Kevin 01 January 2012 11:00:26PM 2 points [-]

By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.

40%

Comment author: FAWS 02 January 2012 12:09:12AM 6 points [-]

What do you mean with "clear"? Majority opinion among defense experts? Something stronger?

Comment author: Kevin 02 January 2012 01:38:58AM 2 points [-]

Majority opinion among defense experts would suffice, though I was picturing a more tumultuous scenario where the information leaks or just otherwise becomes widely known, via defection or invasion or collapse or revolution, etc.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 January 2012 04:49:35PM 5 points [-]

What do you mean by "nuclear weapons"? It's clear they had some sort of nuclear material in some sort of bomb.

Comment author: Prismattic 02 January 2012 01:33:44AM 2 points [-]

This prediction could be made less ambiguous by specifying whether you mean that North Korea never successfully built a nuclear weapon but was sincerely trying to do so or you mean that they were never seriously attempting to build one in the first place.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 03 January 2012 05:23:43PM 1 point [-]

Given you are not necessarily dealing with hugely rational individuals 'sincerely trying to' is hard to prove. If I give someone $1 to buy me a car am I sincerely trying to obtain one?

Comment author: Kevin 02 January 2012 01:37:58AM 1 point [-]

I meant either of those scenarios.

Comment author: gwern 01 January 2012 11:47:10PM 2 points [-]
Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 31 December 2011 06:50:43PM 2 points [-]

Obama will win in November 2012.

P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)

Comment author: gwern 31 December 2011 07:29:34PM *  20 points [-]

90%? I think you need to read some Nate Silver. (Also, existing prediction.)

Comment author: Craig_Heldreth 01 January 2012 05:34:19PM 11 points [-]

Thank you for the link to Silver's piece. I followed 538 in 2008 but I had not looked at it in awhile. Obviously .9 is far too high.

Comment author: michaelcurzi 02 January 2012 12:46:15AM 7 points [-]

Upvoted for updating.

Comment author: taw 03 January 2012 04:52:10AM 4 points [-]

Intrade gives him barely above 50% chance, so you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.

Comment author: APMason 03 January 2012 04:57:21AM 6 points [-]

you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.

And it's correct.

Comment author: wedrifid 31 December 2011 08:23:57PM 1 point [-]

I want to make a bet at those odds. Mostly based on gwern's reply.

Comment author: kalla724 02 January 2012 05:56:35AM 1 point [-]

I quite like prediction that Sean Carrol made on his blog. So much so, I will adopt them in full. They are, after all, based on Science!

  1. Freely-falling objects will accelerate toward the ground at an approximately constant rate, up to corrections due to air resistance.

  2. Of all the Radium-226 nuclei on the Earth today, 0.04% will decay by the end of the year.

  3. A line drawn between any planet (or even dwarf planet) and the Sun will sweep out equal areas in equal times.

  4. Hurricanes in the Northern hemisphere will rotate counterclockwise as seen from above.

  5. The pressure of a gas squeezed in a piston will rise inversely with the change in volume.

  6. Electric charges in motion will give rise to magnetic fields.

  7. The energy of an object at rest whose mass decreases will also decrease, by the change in mass times the speed of light squared.

  8. The content of the world’s genomes will gradually evolve in ways determined by fitness in a given environment, sexual selection, and random chance.

  9. The entropy of closed systems will increase.

  10. People will do many stupid things, and some surprisingly smart ones.

Comment author: MileyCyrus 02 January 2012 05:18:08PM 2 points [-]

Death, taxes.

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 04 January 2012 07:12:02PM 1 point [-]

For anyone who wants to make predictions that you don't want to make public, I just sent a letter to my future self on FutureMe.org, and you might want to consider doing the same.

Comment author: gwern 24 January 2012 03:43:15AM 1 point [-]

Alternately, one makes the predictions on PB.com but just checks "Keep this prediction private."

Comment author: MileyCyrus 01 January 2012 05:27:02PM *  0 points [-]

Ron Paul runs as an Independent or third party. 20% Obama reelected. 60% IF Obama reelected, white male goes on a shooting spree citing political climate as motivation. (Ignore this prediction if Obama not reelected.) 10% The men's rights movement is mentioned in a Time or Newsweek article. 5% Dark Knight Rises gets 50-85% on Rotten Tomatoes. (Good, but not as good as Dark Knight) 60% New Michael Jackson song released posthumously. 20% Chris Brown arrested on new domestic violence charges. 20%

Comment author: MileyCyrus 02 January 2012 04:14:16PM 1 point [-]

Looks great, thanks for figuring out the formatting.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 January 2012 04:21:19PM 1 point [-]

The ones I didn't add were already on PredictionBook or had a close substitute that was.

Comment author: MartinB 06 January 2012 11:52:15AM *  0 points [-]

my predictions: at the end of the year 2012

self (*)

  • I'll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%

  • I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%

  • I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%

  • I'll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%

  • I'll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%

  • I finish university:60%

  • I still am involved in my goal club: 75%

  • I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%

  • I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%

  • I'll start a business project from my backlog: 40%

  • I'll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %

  • I'll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%

  • I'll rejoin Toastmasters: 70%

(*) predicting self related things is a bit weird, since I could influence it based on the amount I bet on it

LW

  • I'll gain a new super important insights: 10%

  • There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%

  • They will be really awesome:60%

world:

  • the EURO will still exist: 95%

  • there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%

  • Greece got another bailout: 30%

  • the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)

  • the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%

  • and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%

  • the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%

  • people will find new scary date in the future: 87%

  • the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%

Germany:

  • the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%

  • the FDP will become unimportant:60%

  • Germany will have a new president: 70%

trueisms:

  • some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%

  • a major political scandal: 99%

  • earthquakes in Japan: 100%

  • Obama wins:60%

  • if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%

  • people will complain, but actually be fine:90%

  • I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%

Comment author: MartinB 07 January 2013 01:02:17PM *  2 points [-]

And now the scoring:

self

I'll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%

No, just 612,5 == 42% of the planned minimum.

I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%

Not quite there yet.

I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%

No.

I'll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%

No.

I'll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%

No.

I finish university:60%

No.

I still am involved in my goal club: 75%

Yes.

I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%

No.

I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%

Yes.

I'll start a business project from my backlog: 40%

No.

I'll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %

Yes.

I'll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%

Yes.

I'll rejoin Toastmasters: 70% No.

LW I'll gain a new super important insights: 10%

Probably. Difficult to score.

There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%

Yes, but that was close.

They will be really awesome:60%

Yes.

world: the EURO will still exist: 95%

Yes

there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%

No.

Greece got another bailout: 30%

Kind of. Hard to score.

the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)

Yes (61 atm)

the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%

Yes.

and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%

No (15 atm)

the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%

Yes

people will find new scary date in the future: 87%

Hard to score, probably true.

the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%

No.

Germany: the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%

No.

the FDP will become unimportant:60%

To difficult to score yet.

Germany will have a new president: 70% Yes. trueisms: some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%

Yes.

a major political scandal: 99%

Yes.

earthquakes in Japan: 100%

Yes.

Obama wins:60%

Yes.

if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%

Not applicable. (Also probably wrong)

people will complain, but actually be fine:90%

Yes.

I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%

No.

I am miscalibrated with the edgier numbers!

Comment author: AspiringKnitter 01 January 2012 06:38:49AM 1 point [-]

Do you need to have an actual probability? Do you have to bet anything to post predictions? Do you have to be on PredictionBook.com?

Because this seems cool, but I'm not sure...?

Comment author: TheOtherDave 01 January 2012 07:04:58AM 3 points [-]

Dunno if there are particular rules for this thread, but in general we encourage predictions to have confidence intervals associated with them. No bets needed, PredictionBook.com account not required.

Comment author: orthonormal 07 January 2012 11:47:54PM 0 points [-]

You can predict however you like. Predictions with numbers are preferred, but not required. There's a fairly good chance that gwern will make a PredictionBook post out of one of your numeric predictions.