1. Made 3 predictions for this: the nominee; Tea Party Split; all 3 clauses
2. Agree on 50-50, rest too vague
3. Already a bunch of predictions
4. Too ideological to judge later (not that one expects much from a J Galt)
5. Seems somewhat objective, but I don't care enough to want to dig through real estate statistics to try to divine the right numbers
6. Seems pretty reasonable. Nobody would try to pass it if they thought it'd be struck down immediately; I excluded your repeal bill claims, though, sticking to just the Supreme Court decision.
7. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5070 Conjunction and narrative fallacies much?

There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs. The US will send aid but will not directly engage Israel's enemies. Japan will join in on Israel's side after the radicals sink oil tankers on the way to Japan. The Russians will sit this one out. Turkey may or may not take part, but if they do it will be against Israel.

On February 13th, President Obama will be assassinated by ninjas. This will lead to a political crisis, which Sarah Palin will exploit to get elected to the White House. On August 18, in a public address to a worried nation, the Secretary of State will declare, 'Two nukes were not enough'. To prevent the destruction of the Holy Grail, Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres and the Organisation will forge a temporary alliance with the intent of neutralizing America's nuclear arsenal. The plan will fail because of sabotage by SEELE. In desperation, Harry Potter will kill every member of the American administration using the Death Note. He will be summoned by the Wizengamot to answer charges of violating the Statute of Secrecy. Having discovered the SEELE plot, however, he will go to Antarctica and attempt to stop it instead of returning to Britain. The Wizengamot will then rule for the repossession of the assets of Potter Finance, and Lord Draco Malfoy will be unable to overrule them. This will trigger civil war in Magical Britain, which will eventually engulf the rest of Magical Europe.

Meanwhile, in Japan, the remnants of the Tohsaka and Matou clans, the late Kiritsugu Emiya's band, and the Church will forge an alliance to deal with the combined forces of the Chaos Legion and the Organisation. They will be defeated, but Ginevra Weasley and Neville Longbottom will be assassinated by Shirou Emiya and Rin Tohsaka respectively. The Organisation and the Legion will try to backstab each other simultaneously, which the Integrated Data Entity and the Sky Canopy Dominion will try to take advantage of. Yuki Nagato will attempt to betray the Entity and will be deleted from existence as a consequence. In retaliation, Kyon will use his trump card on Haruhi Suzumiya, whose annoyance with this whole long-winded FUBAR will create a timequake so severe that it will cause the Second and Third Impacts to occur simultaneously, wiping out all life on earth except for a timid boy and a narcissistic girl with mommy issues. This will happen on December 21.

.... Wow, so the Mayans were right?

Others already pointed out that the level of detail of some of these predictions is way too high, but I don't think anyone linked to Eliezer's "Burdensome Details", which you should read if you haven't already.

There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs. The US will send aid but will not directly engage Israel's enemies. Japan will join in on Israel's side after the radicals sink oil tankers on the way to Japan. The Russians will sit this one out. Turkey may or may not take part, but if they do it will be against Israel.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

(Also, it'd be nice if you attached probabilities to your predictions, that's much more useful than adding details)

I don't understand any of the reasoning behind your Middle Eastern war prediction. As it's been since the '90s, nobody benefits from a massive war in the Middle East.

Israel is still a strong military power in the region, so I don't understand the high probability you've given to them losing. Perhaps it's because you don't expect them to use nuclear weapons. However, if you also believe Iran will use nuclear weapons, then Israel would no longer be the first to "introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East." Even a dud Iranian bomb could give them the political leverage to unleash their own arsenal.

We agree that the US will probably not get involved directly.

If Israel does not use nuclear weapons, and particularly if they suffer nuclear weapons being used against them, then I can understand Japan joining them as allies. In any other scenario, there is no reason for Japan to break their constitutional prohibition on offensive military forces. If Israel does use nuclear weapons, I don't expect Japan to take it very well -- even if their politicians could be pragmatic about it, their populace is probably not capable of it after generations of anti-nuclear propaganda. Ayamachi wa, kurikaeshimasen kara.

Banks in both Europe and America will continue to successfully resist demands that their balance sheets reflect the worthlessness of large parts of their asset totals (mortgages here, government bonds in EU countries),

What is it about EU countries that makes their bonds worthless?