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Vaniver comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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Added some predictions:
1) 75%: On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb’s top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5059)
2) 50%: On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb’s top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5060)
3) 85%: The Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb’s top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5061)
4) 60%: 12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb’s top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5062)
5) 10%: By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5063)
6) 50%: At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. (http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5064)
60% seems way too high to me. The number of votes on 12 Angry Men and Pulp Fiction are both very high- for one to move up and the other to move down seems like it would require a large number of votes distributed differently from past votes.
12 Angry Men has continued to rise every year and I just don't see it ending. Pulp Fiction is very violent and I expect the zeitgeist of film watching (and rating) to move farther and farther away from that. Finally, the movies on the top 250 are shrinkage estimated, scaled to the number of votes, and I expect the ratio of votes between 12AM and PF to decrease in the next year. Anyway, we'll see!