Baughn comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: Baughn 03 January 2012 02:33:32PM * 0 points [-]

There will be at least one believable claim that methane clathrates are being released, rendering climate treaties somewhat irrelevant: 30%

One or more countries will leave the EU monetary union: 50%

Comment author: MixedNuts 08 January 2012 12:00:28AM 0 points [-]

You mean leaving the union, not the Euro zone, right? I'll give you 1.5:1 odds (I'm taking the side "No one leaves").

Comment author: Baughn 08 January 2012 12:49:26PM 0 points [-]

No, sorry, I meant the Euro zone. :P

Comment author: dbaupp 03 January 2012 10:54:01PM 0 points [-]

One or more countries will leave the EU monetary union

Is does this include both voluntarily leaving and being forced out?

Comment author: Baughn 04 January 2012 12:34:49AM 0 points [-]

It includes both.

Comment author: MartinB 06 January 2012 12:03:17PM 0 points [-]

I would bet against that.