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CharlieSheen comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong
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And actually yes, I assign a very low probability to all (defined here as over 95%) female mob less than 1%, an all male one (defined again as 95%+) still has low odds but I'd put it at 30% in at least one city in the above scenario.
But to be honest I used the terminology to mirror.
I did this because wanted to check out how it would do karma wise compared to the parent prediction.
Ah, I see.
Just to clarify, what I'd actually meant was, given a 60% confidence of a riot with >90% (black males + females), what are your expectations about the % of females. (I worded the question atrociously, my apologies.)
But given your actual motivation for the prediction, it's kind of moot.
About 20% to 30%.