Thomas comments on New Year's Prediction Thread (2012) - Less Wrong

20 Post author: gwern 01 January 2012 09:35AM

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Comment author: Thomas 03 January 2012 05:36:28PM 2 points [-]

Not proven. The next experiment(s) in 2012 will say the same as those of 2011 and earlier.

Still, the result will not be widely accepted as a proof.

And I give another prediction. Several "Earth like planets" will be in the media. And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".

Comment author: Thomas 01 January 2013 01:18:18PM 0 points [-]

And I give another prediction. Several "Earth like planets" will be in the media. And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".

There were, sure. And the standard phrase "may be more habitable planets than previously thought" was also there.

And maybe a few Higgs "near sightings".

That is exactly what has happened.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 07 January 2012 09:32:06PM 0 points [-]

"In the media" needs clarification.

And what would qualify as a 'near sighting'?? If the effect we've seen is really due to that, then thousands of events have already involved it.

Comment author: Thomas 07 January 2012 09:51:54PM 0 points [-]

"In the media" needs clarification.

Does it? It was "in the media" in December 2011.

LHC: Higgs boson 'may have been glimpsed'

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 09 January 2012 04:26:48AM 1 point [-]

Many media outlets are sufficiently marginal that whether they qualify as 'in the media' would require clarification. The BBC, obviously, is not one such.

Comment author: mfb 11 January 2012 06:35:06PM 0 points [-]

Any major higgs update from ATLAS and CMS will be present in the media (including BBC), and they will give at least one update during the year (probably 1-2 in summer and one in december, similar to 2011).

Several "Earth like planets" will be in the media.

The discovery of at least one planet with less than 150% of earth's radius within the habitable zone around a main-sequence star will be presented in 2012: 75% (+"with Kepler": 70%)

Note that this may be the best in terms of "there can be life" which we can measure with current telescopes, as long as there is no life which influences the planet in a major way (e.g. changes its atmospheric composition)