Caspian comments on The Savage theorem and the Ellsberg paradox - Less Wrong

13 Post author: fool 14 January 2012 07:06PM

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Comment author: Caspian 15 January 2012 05:06:10AM *  3 points [-]

The obvious type of fair randomness is a symmetrical distribution (equally likely to give N more blue than green, as to give N more green than blue), and this gives equal chances of blue or green to come out of the bag. If I knew it was a double blind experiment, so the experimenter doesn't know the contents of the bag, I would treat red, blue and green as each having known probability of one third. If the offers might depend on the experimenter's knowledge of the bag contents I would not.