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thomblake comments on The Savage theorem and the Ellsberg paradox - Less Wrong
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I'm confused.
Is this supposed to refer to my game, or the game in the OP? In my game, you examine all the balls.
The rest seems rather rushed - I'm having trouble parsing it. If it helps, I was not claiming that in the original game, an expected utility maximizer would strictly prefer A and D without taking into account risk/ambiguity aversion.
I was talking about the OP's game. (The “the choices make sense if you are risk-averse” in the grandparent seems to be about it. Are you using risk aversion with a meaning other than “downward-concave utility function” by any chance?)
Sort of. I was referring to ambiguity aversion, as you can see in the clarification in that very sentence. But I would argue that ambiguity aversion is just the same thing as risk aversion, at a different meta-level.
Though it might take an insane person to prefer a "certain 1/3 chance" over an "uncertain 1/3 chance".