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thomblake comments on The Savage theorem and the Ellsberg paradox - Less Wrong
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There is a possible state of the world where I have picked "green" and it turns out that there were never any green balls in the world. It is possible to have a very strong preference to not be in that state of the world. There is nothing irrational about having a particular preference. Preferences (and utility functions) cannot be irrational.
That does not necessarily follow. The Allais Paradox is not about metauncertainty; it is about putting a special premium on "absolute certainty" that does not translate to relative certainty. Someone who values certainty could consistently choose 1A and 2A.
How many boots to the head is that preference worth? I doubt it's worth very many to you personally, and thus your personal reluctance is due to something else.
I'm done arguing this. I usually find you pretty levelheaded, but your objections in this thread are baffling.