As part of my work for Luke, I looked into price projections for whole genome sequencing, as in not SNP genotyping, which I expect to pass the $100 mark by 2014. The summary is that I am confident whole-genome sequencing will be <$1000 by 2020, and slightly skeptical <$100 by 2020.

Starting point: $4k in bulk right now, from Illumina http://investor.illumina.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=121127&p=irol-newsArticle_print&ID=1561106 (I ran into a ref saying knomeBASE did <$5k sequencing - http://hmg.oxfordjournals.org/content/20/R2/R132.full#xref-ref-106-1 - but after thoroughly looking through their site, I'm fairly sure what they are actually offering is interpretation of a sequence, possibly done by Illumina.)

Projections: "The advent of personal genome sequencing" Drmanac http://wch.org.au/emplibrary/ccch/CPH_D5_L4_Genome_Sequencing.pdf Genetics in Medicine (http://journals.lww.com/geneticsinmedicine/Abstract/2011/03000/The_advent_of_personal_genome_sequencing.4.aspx)

Experts predict that the consumer price to sequence a complete human genome will drop to $1000 in 2014.[9] In our opinion, this will be achieved with existing DNA nanoarray technologies. We further believe that the existing DNA nanoarray technologies, with expected engineering advances, are capable of driving the cost per genome to significantly below $1000 in the following years. By 2020, with improved technology and reduced cost, we may expect tens of millions of personal genomes to be sequenced worldwide....We expect that advances in electronics will allow permanent lifelong storage of personal genetic variants (1 GB/person) for less than $10. [see also my previous discussion of kryder's law]

cite 9 = Metzger ML. Sequencing technologies—the next generation. Nature Rev. Genet. 2010;11:31– 46 http://eebweb.arizona.edu/nachman/Further%20Interest/Metzker_2009.pdf Confusingly, on pg44:

Closing the gap between $10,000 and $1,000 will be the greatest challenge for current technology developers, and the $1,000 genome might result from as-yet-undeveloped innovations. A timetable for the $1,000 draft genome is difficult to predict, and even more uncertain is the delivery of a high-quality, finished-grade personal genome.

Where does 2014 come from? I suggest attributing it to Drmanac and not Metzker. (I've emailed him to ask where his 2014 came from.) Drmanac is commercially involved and seems very optimistic; compare his answers in http://www.clinchem.org/content/55/12/2088.full to the other experts. But there is general agreement it is possible (see also paragraph 3 in https://www.sciencemag.org/content/311/5767/1544.full ).

Here's a citation for 2013: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2011/07/race-to-1000-human-genome-machine-intensifies/1 discussing the new sequencing device in http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v475/n7356/full/nature10242.html (more media coverage: http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110720/full/475278a.html )

In e-mailed comments to USA TODAY, [Jonathan] Rothberg confirms his team has sequenced Moore's genes:

...Much like computing, sequencing directly on a ion chip enables the rapid and continual increase in speed and reduction in cost. At the rate of Ion's current technology improvements we will reach the $1,000 human genome in 2013 and continue to drop the cost from there.

A guy from GenomeQuest (http://www.crunchbase.com/company/genomequest) agrees with Rothberg, saying $100 (not $1000) will be hit within a decade, and $1000 by July 2013: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2010/07/genomic-liftoff/#comment-27818

As well: Snyder M, Du J, Gerstein M. Personal genome sequencing: current approaches and challenges http://stanford.edu/class/gene210/files/readings/Snyder_GenesDev_2010.pdf - pg 3 has a nice graph of the super-exponential price decrease (left, blue) vs total number of sequenced genomes (right, red). Probably don't need that though for a footnote.

A promising lead would be journalist Kevin Davies's The $1,000 Genome: The Revolution in DNA Sequencing and the New Era of Personalized Medicine. I read a few reviews including one in Nature, but unfortunately no one specifically quotes a due date for price-points and the book is not on library.nu for me to search.

Hopefully that is enough for sequencing! Phew. (Something of an echo chamber.)