AnnaSalamon comments on Extreme Rationality: It's Not That Great - Less Wrong
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Your suggested experiment is good. But in this particular case, let's also try to employ the power of positivist thinking on your thesis as a whole. That is, let's break it up into a bunch of specific anticipations, and see what parts there is and isn't disagreement on, before we try to resolve those disagreements. I'll take my own stab at this with a number of short comments in a moment.