thejash comments on Which College Major? - Less Wrong

7 Post author: eggman 06 February 2012 01:45AM

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Comment author: thejash 07 February 2012 03:46:11AM *  -1 points [-]

Ok, I now think it's possible that you were right about the "average" founder, but for a different reason--it only depends on what assumptions we make about the distribution of rationality within the set of all founders. I'm not really interested in that right now.

However, I am assuming that the audience of LW is MORE rational than average. They should be LESS risk averse, because "A risk averse agent can not be rational" (source: http://lesswrong.com/lw/9oe/risk_aversion_vs_concave_utility_function/ )

Thus, I believe that it is somewhat disingenuous to use that paper to say that founding a startup has negative expected utility--actually, the EXPECTED utility is very high (because the average outcome is great), and it is very rational. We should definitely be encouraging people here to start startups.

Comment author: jkaufman 08 February 2012 01:45:47PM 1 point [-]

Risk aversion, as it applies to wages and startups, is measured in money not utility. If you spend money only on yourself it has diminishing returns: the first $50K has a huge effect on your happiness, while the $50K that takes you from $5M to $5.05M much less. So you'd be quite rational to be risk averse in terms of money, preferring a certainty of $1M to even odds of $3M.

(I give away 30% of my money, and if I suddenly earned a large amount I would probably give away more. Charity doesn't have diminishing returns until you're giving huge amounts of money, so I'm not very risk averse.)