Gust comments on Heuristics and Biases in Charity - Less Wrong
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So part of what I think is going on here is that giving to statistical charity is a slippery slope. There is no one number that it's consistent to give: if I give $10 to fight malaria, one could reasonably ask why I didn't give $100; if I give $100, why not $1000; and if $1000, why not every spare cent I make? Usually when we're on a slippery slope like this, we look for a Schelling point, but there are only two good Schelling points here: zero and every spare cent for the rest of your life. Since most people won't donate every spare cent, they stick to "zero". I first realized this when I thought about why I so liked Giving What We Can's philosophy of donating 10% of what you make; it's a powerful suggestion because it provides some number between 0 and 100 which you can reach and then feel good about yourself.
Then identifiable charity succeeds not just because it attaches a face to people, but also because it avoids the slippery slope. If we're told we need to donate to save "baby Jessica", it's very easy to donate exactly as much money as is necessary to help save baby Jessica and then stop. The same is true of natural disasters; if there's an earthquake in Haiti, that means we can donate money to Haiti today but not be under any consistency-related obligations to do so again until the next earthquake. If Haiti is just a horrible impoverished country, then there's no reason to donate now as opposed to any other time, and this is true for all possible "now"s.
Feedback appreciated as I've been planning to make a top-level post about this if I ever get time.
I do think your hypothesis is plausible, but the reasoning it describes seems too complex. One would think like that only if one cares about being consistent and reflects on that, and only after one has decided that the "I've done my part of the job" excuse is not enough... and it seems improbable that most people think like that.
Also, it seems to me that "help Haiti just this once" is not the same scenario as "help just this person".
Worth testing, though. I guess if you set up a scenario like "Help poor kid X grow up well", a long term goal with kinda-hard-to-predict cost that most people wouldn't be willing to pay all at once, with a specific identifiable subject...
The enormous line of research on cognitive dissonance--see the forced compliance paradigm in particular--indicates the importance of consistency, even when it isn't consciously recognized as such.
Thank you for the link. That really makes Yvain's hypothesis more probable.