Surely building an anti-natalist AI that turns the universe into inert matter would be considered unacceptable by most people. So I'm confused.
Yet I am not secretive about it and I believe that it is one of the less horrible strategies. Given that SI is strongly attached to decision theoretic ideas, which I believe are not the default outcome due to practically intractable problems, I fear that their strategies might turn out to be much worse than the default case.
I think that it is naive to simply trust SI because they seem like nice people. Although I don't doubt that they are nice people. But I think that any niceness is easily drowned by their eagerness to take rationality to its logical extreme without noticing that they have reached a point where the consequences constitute a reductio ad absurdum. If game and decision theoretic conjectures show that you can maximize expected utility by torturing lots of people, or by voluntary walking into death camps, then that's the right thing to do. I don't think that they are psychopathic personalities per se though. Those people are simply hold captive by their idea of rationality. And that is what makes them extremely dangerous.
Do you intend to denounce SIAI if they do seriously consider this strategy, and also if they don't?
I would denounce myself if I would seriously consider that strategy. But I would also admire them for doing so because I believe that it is the right thing to do given their own framework of beliefs. What they are doing right now seems just hypocritical. Researching FAI will almost certainly lead to worse outcomes than researching how to create an anti-natalist AI as soon possible.
What I really believe is that there is not enough data to come to any definitive conclusion about the whole idea of a technological singularity and dangerous recursive self-improvement in particular and that it would be stupid to act on any conclusion that one could possible come up with at this point.
I believe that SI/lesswrong mainly produces science fiction and interesting, although practically completely useless, though-experiments. The only danger I see is that some people associated with SI/lesswrong might run rampant once someone demonstrates certain AI capabilities.
All in all I think they are just fooling themselves. They collected massive amounts of speculative math and logic and combined it into a framework of beliefs that can be used to squash any common sense. They have seduced themselves with formulas and lost any ability to discern scribbles on paper from real world rationality. They managed to give a whole new meaning to the idea of model uncertainty by making it reach new dramatic heights.
Bayes’ Theorem, the expected utility formula, and Solomonoff induction are unusable in most but a few limited situations where you have a well-defined testable and falsifiable hypothesis or empirical data. In most situations those heuristics are computationally intractable, one more than the other.
There is simply no way to assign utility to world states without deluding yourself to believe that your decisions are more rational than just trusting your intuition. There is no definition of "utility" that's precise enough to figure out what a being that maximizes it would do. There can't be, not without unlimited resources. Any finite list of actions maximizes infinitely many different quantities. Utility does only become well-defined if we add limitations on what sort of quantities we consider. And even then...
Preferences are a nice concept. But they are just as elusive as the idea of a "self". Preferences are not just malleable but they keep changing as we make more observations, and so does the definition of utility. Which makes it impossible to act in a time-consistent way.
What I really believe is that there is not enough data to come to any definitive conclusion about the whole idea of a technological singularity and dangerous recursive self-improvement in particular and that it would be stupid to act on any conclusion that one could possible come up with at this point.
I agree with the "not enough data to come to any definitive conclusion" part, but think we could prepare for the Singularity by building an organization that is not attached to any particular plan but is ready to act when there is enough data to ...
Suppose you buy the argument that humanity faces both the risk of AI-caused extinction and the opportunity to shape an AI-built utopia. What should we do about that? As Wei Dai asks, "In what direction should we nudge the future, to maximize the chances and impact of a positive intelligence explosion?"
This post serves as a table of contents and an introduction for an ongoing strategic analysis of AI risk and opportunity.
Contents:
Why discuss AI safety strategy?
The main reason to discuss AI safety strategy is, of course, to draw on a wide spectrum of human expertise and processing power to clarify our understanding of the factors at play and the expected value of particular interventions we could invest in: raising awareness of safety concerns, forming a Friendly AI team, differential technological development, investigating AGI confinement methods, and others.
Discussing AI safety strategy is also a challenging exercise in applied rationality. The relevant issues are complex and uncertain, but we need to take advantage of the fact that rationality is faster than science: we can't "try" a bunch of intelligence explosions and see which one works best. We'll have to predict in advance how the future will develop and what we can do about it.
Core readings
Before engaging with this series, I recommend you read at least the following articles:
Example questions
Which strategic questions would we like to answer? Muehlhauser (2011) elaborates on the following questions:
Salamon & Muehlhauser (2013) list several other questions gathered from the participants of a workshop following Singularity Summit 2011, including:
These are the kinds of questions we will be tackling in this series of posts for Less Wrong Discussion, in order to improve our predictions about which direction we can nudge the future to maximize the chances of a positive intelligence explosion.