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billswift comments on Falsification - Less Wrong
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I thought the argument was that since there will almost certainly be more simulated universes than the one real one, we are more likely to be in a simulation? Note that I don't have a strong opinion either way, I don't see, despite Robin's essay, that it makes any real difference.
Robin ultimately calculates that he is probably not a sim in this post. Much like the variables in the Drake equation, Robin's probability estimates are built on a number of unknowns, so we really can't do the calculation. But I have to admit that my own logic failed to take any of these variables into consideration, so please ignore that part of the grandfather.