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gwern comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11 - Less Wrong
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Context: Harry's dark side is amoral, destructive, will take any available option which leads to its target no matter how it may escalate or what the risks are, and cares about nothing else other than achieving regular Harry's current subgoal. (I'm convinced Eliezer regards the dark side as basically a UFAI.) Emphasis added:
Who are the major players here that Harry can affect? Harry has no hold on the Wizengamot, as I pointed out any threat on Azkaban is more easily dealt with by attacking Harry.
So Dumbledore and Lucius are the keys. What can Harry do with Dumbledore - no matter the cost to Dumbledore, Harry, or anyone else - that would free Hermione? There's little he can testify to, as an Occlumens, so he can't even sacrifice himself (Lucius would refuse it), and it's not obvious how any of his magic 2.0 abilities could somehow convince the Wizengamot that Hermione is innocent or Lucius to let her go - what is he going to do, promise some more magic to an aristocrat who can buy all the magic he wants?
The answer is so obvious I'm surprised that no one seems to have suggested it yet here or in the reviews: Harry can use his leverage on Dumbledore to trade him for Hermione - "tradeoff". Dumbledore practically says as much:
What does Lucius want? Well, he is perfectly clear:
Why would Dumbledore do it? Because he's already half-way to turning himself in (viz his little dialogue with Madam Bones):
and he really thinks Harry is on the path to darkness (in a way few others are, because Dumbledore is one of the only knowers of the Prophecy) and this Hermione incident would be more than enough to turn Harry, convince him that the system is irredeemably corrupt and turn his mission to 'taking over Magical England', as indeed the omniscient narrator tells us Harry has already done to the point of no longer caring about not being called a Dark Lord... Sacrificing himself to keep Harry on the side of good is a good deal. This is consistent with canon Dumbledore losing power and respect, and ultimately dying in the war with Voldemort while working on the Horcruxes to aid Harry's ultimate victory; and for that matter, who replaces Dumbledore as headmaster in canon? A character which just showed up in MoR for the first time ever...
It will come at a major cost - Dumbledore will either be in Azkaban or he will flee or something like that and his entire faction discredited. "Tradeoff".
To me, this is the most compelling scenario, which I give a full 40% probability of having; but I also like the debt (30%/20%) and time-turner strategies (35%), although the latter is more because time-turners are so general and powerful that I have to assume my inability to think of a really solid strategy is my inability alone.
Wasn't that one of Lucius's lackeys from the previous chapters where they watched the battle?
That is the optimistic view of Dumbledore.
It doesn't matter who was the real culprit as long as Dumbledore confesses. He's an occlumens and i would be doubtful if any legilimens can read his mind and find the truth.
Yes, but he won't. Dumbledore's a vastly more valuable piece than Hermione, and he won't give himself up for that paltry of stakes.
He wouldn't be giving himself up for a piece like Hermione, but a piece like Harry.
True, but unless Harry looks like he's about to do something immensely stupid(and the only thing stupid enough that I can think of would be admitting to the Azkaban breakout, which Dumbledore doesn't know about), he's not at risk.
He's already given himself up to the dark side - see his internal narration!
Which Dumbledore also doesn't know about, though he might be able to predict it.
Maybe I'm getting too attached to my own new solution. It does seem to me that getting Hermione to swear an Unbreakable Vow to seek vengeance on Narcissa's killer would work better.
Lucius, we think, does not know what 'Harrymort' wants. If Hermione takes the Vow then Lucius will think he has the answer: "The Dark Lord's been setting up a way to take down Dumbledore, a way that looks like the work of D's own allies." Even if D kills his Muggle-born pawn, that would look suspicious and perhaps lead to his political destruction. Then the noble, grieving-but-honest Harry Potter steps into the vacuum?
A Hermione in the hand is worth publicly backing down and 2 Unbreakable Vows in the bush.
I read that as possibly saying he was half-way to turning Madam Bones, the real culprit, in.
Bones isn't taking the attitude of 'don't turn me in, Albus, you owe me', but 'Albus, don't turn yourself in, you know it's the right thing but the consequences would be too bad'. At least, it's clear to me that Bones is not the bone to be thrown to Lucius.
I thought she might be taking the attitude of 'don't turn me in, Albus, you know it's the right thing but the consequences would be too bad right now'. Read: lose the head of the Aurors as an ally just when Voldemort has become active again, and the rest of the Ministry and Amelia's replacement wouldn't believe Dumbledore about it (going by canon).