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Yvain comments on Nonmindkilling open questions - Less Wrong
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These would all make decent examples, but I'm surprised by how many posts here have concentrated solely on future events (which are obviously uncertain). I'm curious whether there are any questions about the past or present that fit these criteria.
In order for probabilities to be logical as an approach, you need ignorance. Ignorance is in much more ample supply in the future than it is in the past.