wedrifid comments on SotW: Check Consequentialism - Less Wrong

38 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 29 March 2012 01:35AM

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Tags: sotw skill 5sl consequentialism exprize

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Comment author: wedrifid 29 March 2012 12:30:45PM 0 points [-]

In equal numbers? At sea? Are the ninjas manning a ninja-vessel?

Why would the ninjas try to fight pirates at sea? Are they intellectually disabled ninjas? Clearly they would wait until the pirates land, get ridiculously drunk and start carousing (and raping and pillaging if they are into that sort of thing). Then poison them or stab them in the back.

Comment author: APMason 29 March 2012 03:11:33PM 5 points [-]

Well, you see what you've done here is you've put me in a situation where I'm in an argument I don't care about, I agree with you, and yet some part of my brain is still playing Pirate's Advocate. Thanks very much.

Comment author: wedrifid 29 March 2012 03:15:00PM *  -1 points [-]

an argument I don't care about

Sacrilege! Next you will be telling me you don't care about astronauts vs cavemen either! (If they are fighting in space the cavemen lose. Just sayin'.)

Comment author: dlthomas 29 March 2012 02:15:48PM 4 points [-]

Maybe they're just sailing on their way to a ninja convention, when suddenly - bam, pirates!

Comment author: wedrifid 29 March 2012 02:45:32PM -1 points [-]

Maybe they're just sailing on their way to a ninja convention, when suddenly - bam, pirates!

(Laughing.)

And the pirates board the ship trying to take the loot when suddenly the ninjas casually slaughter all the pirates, board their ship (the pirates probably crippled the ninja ship before boarding) and sail the pirate ship away.

Mind you I'm still giving an idiot ball to all the ninjas for sailing in a ship that isn't heavily armed.

Comment author: dlthomas 29 March 2012 02:51:18PM 5 points [-]

I think the group with practice winning naval engagements would more likely win the naval engagement.

Comment author: wedrifid 29 March 2012 03:13:24PM 1 point [-]

I think the group with practice winning naval engagements would more likely win the naval engagement.

And by this you mean the Navy vessel that is transporting the ninjas would more likely win the naval engagement? (The engagement that the pirates would never initiate because they are experienced in not picking fights that they will lose).

Or are we still talking about the landlubber ninjas who have never learned to sail that are for some reason trying to sail themselves across a sea for conference purposes? I'm imagining them up in the rigging comically trying to sail and needing to use all their ninja agility to dodge the yardarms that are swinging around wildly as they try to figure out which way they are supposed to pull the ropes...

Basically, pirates can beat ninjas if they load up their cannons with idiot balls for ammunition and the ninjas eagerly run out to catch them.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 29 March 2012 04:05:18PM 2 points [-]

International ninja conferences would be fun, though. (Once the transportation difficulties were ironed out.)

Comment author: dlthomas 29 March 2012 04:39:18PM 2 points [-]

Most people are landlubbers. Most landlubbers going on a voyage would be on a passenger ship, not a navy vessel. I see no reason either of these wouldn't apply to ninja. In this particular situation - one or several ninja on a passenger vessel raided by pirates - I expect the pirates to win. Of the circumstances where ninja and pirates would be in the same place at the same time, this seems to be the most likely where the pirates would have the edge.

Comment author: wedrifid 29 March 2012 05:09:24PM 1 point [-]

Most people are landlubbers. Most landlubbers going on a voyage would be on a passenger ship, not a navy vessel. I see no reason either of these wouldn't apply to ninja.

I suggest that the reference class 'most people' is the wrong reference class from which to make predictions about ninja tactical decisionmaking.

Comment author: hairyfigment 29 March 2012 07:41:12PM *  4 points [-]

I think you overestimate the importance of ninjas to the people who command navies.

The warlord Oda Nobunaga's notorious reputation led to several attempts on his life. In 1571, a Kōga ninja and sharpshooter by the name of Sugitani Zenjubō was hired to assassinate Nobunaga. Using two arquebuses, he fired two consecutive shots at Nobunaga, but was unable to inflict mortal injury through Nobunaga's armor.[51] Sugitani managed to escape, but was caught four years later and put to death by torture.[51] In 1573, Manabe Rokurō, a vassal of daimyo Hatano Hideharu, attempted to infiltrate Azuchi Castle and assassinate a sleeping Nobunaga. However, this also ended in failure, and Manabe was forced to commit suicide, after which his body was openly displayed in public.[51] According to a document, the Iranki, when Nobunaga was inspecting Iga province — which his army had devastated — a group of three ninja shot at him with large-caliber firearms. The shots flew wide of Nobunaga, however, and instead killed seven of his surrounding companions.[52]

Comment author: dlthomas 29 March 2012 07:43:23PM 0 points [-]

The reference class of "most people" is a better starting point than maximum entropy. Particularly in light of the fact that significant visible differences of behavior would work against the whole secrecy thing.

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