buybuydandavis comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Xachariah 25 March 2012 11:01AM

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Comment author: buybuydandavis 27 March 2012 03:44:53AM 5 points [-]

Where do prophecies come from?

According to my preferred storyline, of Voldemort purposely "losing" to the baby Harry, they could come from Voldemort.

Comment author: pedanterrific 27 March 2012 12:09:59PM 3 points [-]

Didn't we get a Trelawney POV of her not-quite-getting a prophecy in the middle of the night with no one around? Why would Voldemort set that up?

Comment author: [deleted] 28 March 2012 01:36:26AM 1 point [-]

There's a lot to like about this hypothesis. It doesn't require any additional characters, and exploiting Dumbledore's love of stories and Snape's love of Lily would be very Quirrell. I can see two problems with it. Quirrell has acted like he takes prophecies seriously, which seems to me more consistent with someone who believes in them than one who orchestrates them. It also doesn't seem to have been necessary. As far as I know, we haven't been given any reason for him to have suddenly changed direction and abandoned his war. If he'd just stayed the course, he'd have won.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 28 March 2012 02:36:38AM 1 point [-]

In the passage you link to, I don't think Quirrell was interested in the prophecy as much as the plot that took Skeeter down. He seemed generally interested in the latter, and the demand for the paper was one of those "give me that's" where incredulity is pushed too far on something otherwise believed to be real.

As for objection #2, how would he have defeated the invincible Dumbledore, holder of the Elder wand?

In my preferred scenario, where Voldemort uploads into Harry as Harry seemingly defeats Voldemort, Voldemort doesn't have to defeat Dumbledore. Dumbledore becomes his ally, and likely passes the Order of Merlin onto him before he dies. If nothing else, Harrymort would have better opportunities to kill Dumbledore than Quirrellmort.

Ruling as Harrymort has more benefits and is more secure than ruling as Voldemort, even if we assume Voldemort would have won the war. Successfully terrorizing magical Britain isn't the same as winning the war. Once Dumbledore and the Order started using some terror of their own, I think it's likely that they would have eventually won.

Comment author: Alsadius 27 March 2012 04:41:30AM 0 points [-]

That doesn't explain Trelawney's prediction about the baby who has the power to defeat Voldemort.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 27 March 2012 07:43:36AM 3 points [-]

Sure it does. How do you know that Trewlaney's speaking of a few sentences wasn't arranged by Voldemort?

Particularly in HPMOR, where I'm liking a "make Harry the Dark Lord, and then upload into his body" Voldemort plot, setting that up in advance by arranging for Trewlaney to speak in a funny voice about Harry makes perfect sense.

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 27 March 2012 05:38:57PM 2 points [-]

But how could he have been plotting that before Harry was born? Unless any baby would have worked and he wanted one with the genes of some strong adversaries, then made Harry the way he is by making him a Horcrux.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 28 March 2012 09:31:28PM *  3 points [-]

Harry is definitely the way he is because of what happened with Riddle, whose intelligence and echoes of specific expertise were transferred to the baby in some form (made him Riddle's "equal", quite literally). What remains unclear is whether it's "because he's a Horcrux" (which could be some kind of emergency enchantment prepared by Riddle to be triggered upon his body's death, say using the "sacrifice" of his own life to make his own Horcrux), or a purposeful construction by Riddle (perhaps a way of subverting his interpretation of the prophecy, a response to what he saw as a serious threat). If Voldemort's death wasn't part of Riddle's plan, it could be the result of Dumbledore's trap (possibly a ritual with human sacrifice, and Snape's knowledge of the prophesy a bait). Or both: achieved by triggering Dumbledore's trap, but used as a way of subverting the prophesy.

Comment author: gwern 28 March 2012 10:27:22PM 2 points [-]

Or both: achieved by triggering Dumbledore's trap, but used as a way of subverting the prophesy.

Remember that Dumbledore said that Voldemort took a trap as a challenge to his wit.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 28 March 2012 10:50:51PM *  0 points [-]

I don't, where was that?

Comment author: gwern 28 March 2012 11:13:35PM 1 point [-]

Chapter 61:

"So," Albus said heavily. "Our first suspect is Voldemort, risen again and seeking to resurrect himself. I have studied many books I wish I had not read, seeking his every possible avenue of return, and I have found only three. His strongest road to life is the Philosopher's Stone, which Flamel assures me that not even Voldemort could create on his own; by that road he would rise greater and more terrible than ever before. I would not have thought Voldemort able to resist the temptation of the Stone, still less because such an obvious trap is a challenge to his wit. But his second avenue is nearly as strong: The flesh of his servant, willingly given; the blood of his foe, forcibly taken; and the bone of his ancestor, unknowingly bequeathed. Voldemort is a perfectionist -" Albus glanced at Severus, who nodded agreement, "- and he would certainly seek the most powerful combination: the flesh of Bellatrix Black, the blood of Harry Potter, and the bone of his father. Voldemort's final avenue is to seduce a victim and drain the life from them over a long period; in which case Voldemort would be weak compared to his former power. His motive to spirit away Bellatrix is clear. And if he is keeping her in reserve, to use only in case he cannot attain the Stone, that would explain why no kidnap attempt was made on Harry this day."

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 28 March 2012 11:46:57PM *  1 point [-]

"I would not have thought Voldemort able to resist the temptation of the Stone, still less because such an obvious trap is a challenge to his wit."

The "trap" Dumbledore refers to is one set up in the third-floor corridor of Hogwarts, and has nothing to do with the Night of Godric Hollow. Ch. 77:

"Do not bluff against me, Severus Snape; I find it annoying, and you are in no position to annoy me. A single glance would tell any competent wizard that the Headmaster has laced that corridor with a ridiculous quantity of wards and webs, triggers and tripsigns. And more: there are Charms laid there of ancient power, magical constructs of which I have heard not even rumors, techniques that must have been disgorged from the hoarded lore of Flamel himself. Even He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named would have had trouble passing those without notice." Professor Quirrell tapped a thoughtful finger on his cheek. "And for the actual lock, a Colloportus laid on an ordinary doorknob, cast so weakly that it could not have kept out Miss Granger on the day she entered Hogwarts. Never before in my existence have I encountered such a blatant trap."

Comment author: gwern 29 March 2012 12:51:15AM 2 points [-]

I don't follow your point. You suggested that Dumbledore could have prepared Godric's Hollow as a trap, and then a conjunction about it being a trap and Voldemort using it cleverly; I pointed out that Dumbledore's assessment of Voldemort's psychology makes the conjunction more likely than a naive analysis would expect, inasmuch as he has explicitly said it and prepared such a trap, and Quirrelmort's assessment basically agrees: it's an obvious trap which impresses him with the rare and powerful magics, and would tax his ingenuity to solve.

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