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DanArmak comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong
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Now that just sounds like reverse psych to make him bet against you.
It does, doesn't it?
Hopefully I'm not about to learn a big lesson in humility, I would be less confident but I haven't seen or thought of any other plans that satisfy my criteria.
You should probably not even have a 90% probability for satisfaction of your criteria (the full exoneration of Hermione in the eyes of the public). I'm probably assigning less than 50% probability on that being the actual end result given how well she was framed -- any specific path to that conclusion should therefore be even less likely.
So you're 90% certain that if you are incapable of imagining something, Eliezer can't either?
Wow.
Not Elizer, just Harry.
Still wow.