DanArmak comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12 - Less Wrong
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I'm not saying your plot is bad, it might be the best possible. (Well, I personally don't think so, but I'm not arguing for or against it in this comment.) I'm just pointing out why I think people try so hard to come up with plots that are wildly more improbable than even yours, but have better endings.