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wedrifid comments on Rationality Quotes April 2012 - Less Wrong
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Better yet... embed five different predictions in that header. When the time comes, reveal just the one that turned out most correct!
Hmm yes, there might be a hidden weakness in my master plan as far as accountability is concerned :-)
None that were not extant in the original scheme, assuming there are at least five people on LW who'd be considered trusted parties.
But of four people on LW who would be considered trusted parties, what's the probability that all four would be quiet after the fifth is called upon to post the prediction or prediction hash?
You're right, of course. I didn't think that through. There haven't been any good "gain the habit of really thinking things through" exercises for a Skill-of-the-Week post, have there?
Bear in mind that it's often not worth the effort. I think the skill to train would be recognizing when it might be.
Besides, in the prediction-hash case, they may well not post right away.
"Recognizing when you've actually thought thoroughly" is the specific failure mode I'm thinking of; but that's probably highly correlated with recognizing when to start thinking thoroughly.
I feel like such a skill may be difficult to consciously train without a tutor:
-- @afoolswisdom
Yes, the first thing I thought of was Quirrel's hashed prediction; but it doesn't seem that everyone's forgotten yet, as of last month.