My (crude) probability assignments for which one is the lie: 0.15, 0.1, 0.15, 0.1, 0.5. I know nothing about Magic and have never even heard of Battletoads, but I'll assume that #3 is impressive because otherwise you wouldn't have chosen it.

(My immediate reaction to your list: The lie must be #5 because the other statements are merely somewhat improbable whereas that one is an actual logical impossibility.)