How well can we, at Less Wrong, tell the difference between truth and fiction? Let's play a little game, which I once saw in a movie.
In this game, we each say five things about ourselves, four of which are true. We then try to guess which ones are true and which ones are lies. (Go ahead and use Google, if you like.) I'll start.
My five facts:
1) I have another LessWrong commenter's autograph.
2) I once received the first place prize in an (unsanctioned, online) Magic tournament that lasted a total of ten rounds (seven rounds of Swiss pairings, plus three single elimination rounds) but only beat an opponent at Magic during four of them.
3) I've beaten Battletoads, on an actual NES, without using a Game Genie or other cheat device.
4) Not too long ago, I made a $500 donation to Population Services International, using my debit card. Unfortunately, this overdrew my checking account. My parents were not pleased, not only because I overdrew my checking account, but also because they disapproved of my donating such a large amount of money.
5) My favorite Star Wars movie is "Attack of the Clones."
(Note: I used a random number generator to determine which position would contain the lie.)
Only piece of information we're missing is how many people started in the tournament which would allow us to find out how many points he would need to get top8.
You sound like you know what a Magic tournament is about way more than I do (don't know what counts as a draw, or if there even is such a thing) and have revised my estimates accordingly.
(1) .1 (2) .35 (3) .35 (4).18 (5).02
5 is low due to pjeby's comment, the .02 is my probability that he would slash my tires or is wrong.
Draws are possible in Magic (kill both players at the same time), but they're quite rare. Unless for some reason you wanted to draw instead of win, in which case you could do so intentionally.
In an online tournament, in addition to anything the tournament format itself allows, there's always another way to get eliminated: disconnect / failure to show up. I don't remember the disconnect rate in Magic online being particularly high, but a tournament does involve a significant amount of time for people to misplan.