TimS comments on Interesting rationalist exercise about French election - Less Wrong
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Interesting. For some portion of the population, I expect their prediction of others to center around their own political beliefs, for "Politics is the mind-killer" / "Mind-projection" reasons. I wonder if there is a way to confront people with this, as a way of improving rationality?
Indeed. And even for an "in training rationalist" (I did read the Sequences and try to be a rationalist, but I don't consider myself "black belt"), I found it quite hard to dissociate the "what I think is the best answer" from "what I think people think is the best answer", it required some kind of mental effort, more than I would have said it requires beforehand.
As an anecdote, I had an opposite slight tendency to go for what seemed like the worst answer and I had to switch answers twice because of this.