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RobinHanson comments on The Sin of Underconfidence - Less Wrong
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We have lots of experimental data showing overconfidence; what experimental data show a consistent underconfidence, in a way that a person could use that data to correct their error? This would be a lot more persuasive to me than the mere hypothetical possibility of underconfidence.
Underconfidence is surely very common in the general population. It's usually referred to "shyness", "tentativeness", "depression" - or by other names besides "underconfidence". This is part of the audience of the self-help books that encourage people to be more confident.
E.g. see: "The trouble with overconfidence." on PubMed.
For underconfidence and depression, see:
"Depressive cognition: a test of depressive realism versus negativity using general knowledge questions." on PubMed.
Underconfidence in visual perceptual judgments:
"The role of individual differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments." on PubMed.
More on that, see:
"Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination." on PubMed.
I believe there were some nice experiments having to do with overcorrection, and I believe those were in "Heuristics and Biases" (the 2003 volume), but I'm on a trip right now and away from my books.