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Manfred comments on Problematic Problems for TDT - Less Wrong
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Actually, the way the problem is specified, Omega puts the money in box 3.
The argument is that the simulation is either TDT-A in this case, or TDT-B. Either way, the simulated agent will pick a single favourite box (1 or 2) with certainty, so the money is in either Box 2 or Box 1,
Though I can see an interpretation which leads to Box 3. Omega simulates a "new-born" TDT (which is neither -A nor -B) and watches as it differentiates itself to one variant or the other, each with equal probability. So the new-born picks boxes 1 and 2 with equal frequency over multiple simulations, and Box 3 contains the money. Is that what you were thinking?
Yes. I was thinking that Omega would have access to the agent's source code, and be running the "play against yourself, if you pick a different number than yourself you win" game. Omega is a jerk :D
If it's your own exact source being simulated, then it's probably impossible to do better than 10%, and the problem isn't interesting anymore.