Excellent solution. Looking back on my tinkering with excel, I made an error in how I determined whether or not Feynman would have been right.
Unsurprisingly, that method would have still given the wrong answer (a 3% chance still isn't very good), but it's an example of using your knowledge of the general behavior of a function to make an educated guess.
I have a whimsical challenge for you: come up with problems with numerical solutions that are hard to estimate.
This, like surprisingly many things, originates from a Richard Feynman story:
So what would you ask Richard Feynman to solve? Think of this as the reverse of Fermi Problems.
Number theory may be a rich source of possibilities here; many functions there are wildly fluctuating, require prime factorization and depend upon the exact value of the number rather than it's order of magnitude. For example, I challenge you to compute the largest prime factor of 650238.
(My original example was: "For example, I challenge you to compute the greatest common denominator of 10643 and 15047 without a computer. This problem has the nice advantage of being trivial to make harder to compute - just throw in some extra primes." It has been pointed out that I forgot Euclid's algorithm and have managed to choose about the only number theoretic question that does have an efficient solution.)