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faul_sname comments on Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to estimate? - Less Wrong
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Excellent solution. Looking back on my tinkering with excel, I made an error in how I determined whether or not Feynman would have been right.
Unsurprisingly, that method would have still given the wrong answer (a 3% chance still isn't very good), but it's an example of using your knowledge of the general behavior of a function to make an educated guess.