MarkusRamikin comments on A (small) critique of total utilitarianism - Less Wrong
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I've always felt that post was very suspect. Because, if you do the utilitarian math, robbing banks and giving them to charity is still a good deal, even if there's a very low chance of it working. Your own welfare simply doesn't play a factor, given the size of the variables you're playing with. It seems to be that there is a deeper moral reason not to murder organ donors or steal food for the hungry than 'it might end poorly for you.'
Only if you're bad at math. Banks aren't just piggybanks to smash, they perform a useful function in the economy, and to disrupt it has consequences.
Of course I prefer to defeat bad utilitarian math with better utilitarian math rather than with ethical injunctions. But hey, that's the woe of bounded reason, even without going into the whole corrupted hardware problem: your model is only so good, and heuristics that serve as warning signals have their place.