wedrifid comments on Reply to Holden on The Singularity Institute - Less Wrong
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Found it. It was nested too deep in a comment tree.
The particular line was:
The position is something I think it is best I don't mention again until (unless) I get around to writing the post "Predicting Failure Without Details" to express the position clearly with references and what limits apply to that kind of reasoning.
Isn't it just straight-up outside view prediction?